Energy Scenarios Ireland - New pages [en]

Forums

Phoebebright — Sat, 25 Nov 2006 23:06:11 GMT

Summary:

Additional Facts

* All houses now have smart metering which allows for variable pricing of electricity
* Devices attached to appliances can be set to run when a certain price band is reached so the less urgent tasks wait for the lowest prices and their is also a "I need it and I need it now" button for urgent tasks!
* Many have battery backup which not only provides electricity if the power goes off, but can be charged when the price is low and used when the price is high.
* Some apartments have shared facilities such as washing machines
* The standard of insulation and draught-proofing in homes countrywide now rivals Sweden
* Homes now require 50% of the energy to run them that they did in 2005. This is though efficiency gains and people keeping their homes cooler.
* High energy tasks now carried out when power is cheap rather than when it is convenient. Washing when the wind blows.

ARREST

Phoebebright — Mon, 22 May 2006 08:26:17 GMT

Summary:

==Website Changes==

* Plain good is good
* Colours don't really work.

===Phoebe's Todo===
* remove technorati search box
* About Us - move to link in top menu
* group keywords
* Try to get most recent on top in list of signatories
* On Registration - has Member Registration 3 times, change to Sign the Declaration
* Check english translation - especially registration, city etc.
* Links don't work at bottom of the page.

===Jeff's todo===
* revamp colours
* Redesign top menu so no overlapping in german version

===Wish List===
* in signatories list, be able to click on country and see all people in that country

Report

Phoebebright — Fri, 19 May 2006 15:13:09 GMT

Summary:

Proposed structure of the Energy Futures report to the EPA

Executive Summary: This will emphasise that there are short- and long-term benefits to proactively increasing energy productivity regardless of the rate at which energy prices rise.

==Characteristics of Current Paradigm==
* human energy is expensive, non-human energy is cheap
* fossil fuel energy is cheap, renewable energy is expensive
* growth is tied to availability of energy
* global economy is possible because transport is cheap
* economic activity moves to sources of cheap labour

==Possible Characteristics of the New Paradigm==
* human energy is cheaper
* fossil fuel energy is costly
* economic success is no longer tied to growth
* some renewables sources of energy are cheaper
* it is no longer economic to transport some types of goods
* economic activity moves to sources of cheap energy
* Energy purchases will take a larger proportion of peoples income.

==What the new Paradigm might be like==
* huge potential for innovation, but rapid growth in some sectors only balances rapid decline in others.

Paradigm shift - how we did it and why

1. Introduction: What we were commissioned to do and how we did it.

2. Why energy prices are likely to rise in relation to labour. This chapter will start with historic price trends, showing how the cost of energy has fallen in terms of the number of minutes of work required to earn a kWh or a litre of petrol. How other prices (in minutes) have fallen in step with the price of fuel. Why we might have just passed a historic turning point and be seeing the beginnings of a reversal of this trend. How high the price of energy might go relative to labour. The short-term factors that could disguise the rising trend (e.g., a global depression brought about by central bank action to dampen-down energy-price induced inflation).

3. Using scenarios to explore responses to restricted fossil energy supplies. This will set out the case for using scenarios and stress how they show the importance of adopting the right national and international policies. However, to simplify matters, the report will concentrate on just two, one proactive, the other reactive, and look at how each would fare at whatever time the world oil supply did actually start to contract. We will explain that other scenarios are possible but that the business as usual one is unlikely. We will set out what would be required for each to come about.

4. The use of the ECCO model to assess the scenarios. This will explain what the ECCO model does and how its predictions are based on an input-output model of the Irish economy. It will add that as higher energy prices change the way firms etc operate, the input-output model has to be changed to reflect that.
5. The effects of much higher energy prices on sectors of the Irish economy. This chapter will open with a discussion of the effects of higher energy prices on economic growth. It will point out that higher energy prices mean that capital equipment will cost more in relation to labour and that, as a result, there will be a tendency for businesses to become less capital-intensive.It will then build on the previous chapter by exploring how the following sectors of the economy might change as energy prices rise under the two scenarious. The discussion under the proactive scenario will cover:

a) Energy services: The development of renewable energy sources.
The move away from the generation of electricity in a few locations to distributed generation because of the need to use heat which is currently wasted and to avoid line losses. The effects of this on the grid and on the location of energy-intensive activities. Retrofitting of CHP plants in urban areas. Awareness of need not to use high-grade energy for low-grade tasks.

b) Transport, distribution and tourism. After energy, this will be the sector most profoundly affected by the higher energy costs. The end of just-in-time delivery systems, weekend break holidays, two-car households. The growth of new types of collective delivery service. Stepping down to a less energy-intensive transport mode. (i.e., shift from plane to train, car to bus, bus to bike). Widespread ownership of small electric/compressed air cars for short journeys. Use of hired or car-club vehicles for exceptional, longer trips.

c) Manufacturing. Not only will machinery cost more, but materials will do too. Firms will tend to move away from the IKEA model which makes large quantities of a very few products on automated equipment and then ships them around the world to much less capital-intensive but more flexible production which makes smaller quantities of a greater range of products in each factory. The need for higher levels of skill.

d) The construction sector. The end of road and airport construction. Greatly reduced demand for new buildings, but compensating interest in conversions and improving energy efficiency of existing buildings. The few new buildings will shift away from energy-intensive materials to low energy ones.

e) Agriculture. Significantly higher prices for food enables more labour to be employed. New opportunities from energy crops and biogas digesters and also from the replacement of imported produce with flowers and vegetables grown in local glasshouses using heat from CHP plants. Partial shift to low-external input systems selling locally. Irish milk products and meat produced at lower cost than elsewhere in EU because no need for imported feed.

f) Retailing and state services. Many more smaller local schools and cottage hospitals. Return of the travelling shop, which also acts as a parcels delivery and collection vehicle. Packaging becomes very much simpler. Local bottling plants with returnable bottles re-established. Micro breweries spread.

7. Effects of these changes on the projections from the ECCO model.

8. Effects of the changes on the consumer. Consumers will find that they are paying much more of their incomes for their food, fuel, clothing and durables. This will leave them with much less to spend on discretionary items such as holidays, restaurants, travel to work and for leisure. They will want to live close to their work and to have access to a garden or allotment on which to grow food. They will want to repair things rather than replace them. The most noticeable change will be in house prices. These will drop steadily as people find that they cannot afford to support the size of mortgage people typically take on at present. Some houses – those in rural areas without land, for example – might be abandoned altogether, just as many were in the midlands as a result of emigration. The likelihood of a trend towards ruralisation, producing a more even distribution of population across the country with small-scale local hubs/clusters rather than cities/conurbations. This would also bring changes in patterns of cultural life and the leisure industry, a further effect on consumers/citizens and on the economy.

9. Conclusions

10. Appendices:

A) The scenarios in detail.

B) The ECCO model in more technical detail, including the improvements made to it during the project and the policy options that we fed into it.

C) Results from the workshops

=========
We will not make forecasts and avoid using phrases like "we need to..." and other prescriptive terms which quickly translate to "We think you should..." Instead, the report will aim is to get its readers to think for themselves, to weigh up the possibilities and to make their own decisions about what the future will be like and what they should do as families, employers and citizens.

Success=

Energy Hotel

Phoebebright — Wed, 01 Feb 2006 18:07:51 GMT

Summary:

=Expression of Interest for UKERC Meeting Place research hotel activities=

Applicant’s full name: FEASTA

Applicant’s position/title: Phoebe Bright

Business address: Kippagh, Dunmanway, Co. Cork

Business phone:+353 23 55195

Mobile phone:

Fax:

Email: phoebebright@vividlogic.ie

Admin Contact: Enid O'Dowd

Address:
Feasta, 10a Lr Camden Street,Dublin 2

Tel: +353 (0)1 4053615

Fax: +353 (0)1 4054835

General Email: feasta@anu.ie

=ENERGY SCENARIOS FOR THE UK AND IRELAND=

==1. Outline the purpose/objectives of what you want to do:==

The Energy Scenarios Ireland study (http://www.energyscenariosireland.com) used four senarios to look at the impact that changing energy prices might have on the Irish economy and society over the next fifty years. The aim of this project is to develop the approach used in that study, to apply it to Britain, and then to bring the results to a much wider audience.

Our primary objective is to help as many people as possible become aware of the fundamental impact that switching away from oil and gas is going to have on our way of life and in doing so start to ask better questions and make more informed decisions about our future.

Our plan for phase 2, still in development, is to get together a workshop pack that can be delivered by others and that will include newspapers of the future for each scenario. We believe that Energy Hotel idea can be used to further develop these newspaper articles in two areas:
- develop UK specific scenarios
- develop articles that reflect potential future technologies and
how these will effect the way we live and work.

This is an opportunity for researchers in a particular area to give free rein to their imaginations. If their projects were to take off, what do they think it would mean? And to test these ideas with people who have a different perspective. Very often we assume that everything else will stay the same while only our area of interest changes. For example, the road hauliers may think that substituting biodiesel will allow business as usual, but if at the same time businesses are moving away from Just in Time to having warehouses and therefore fewer but larger deliveries, this will have a major impact on road haulage.

Potential headlines that need fleshing out:
*Major shipping company buys Airship business - about how low cost shipping and low cost airship transport is replacing high cost aviation and road haulage.
*First new windmill that you live in for 150 years - about block of flats has giant blades on the side that powers everything from lights to lifts making the building self-sufficient.
*Furry roof powers house - about how small is the way to go. Nanotechnology used to develop miniature windmills that cover roof slates and power a whole house.

We are open to ideas on the best way of achieving this, and are assuming that a few concentrated days together plus some online collaboration would be the way to go, but your thoughts and experience would be most welcome.

===More about Energy Scenarios Ireland===

The cheap energy that is fundamental to our western way of life, and drives our economic systems, comes almost entirely from depleting fossil fuels. The second era of cheap energy may come again when we become as technologically advanced and societally adapted to using it from renewable sources as we currently are from non-renewable sources.

In the changeover period however, prices will rise and supply become even more uncertain. This will bring major and fundamental changes to the way we have to live and do business. We are only just starting to become aware of how significant these changes are likely to be.

We are still a very long way from understanding just what they mean and so continue to plan based on assumptions that energy will remain as affordable and, easily and profitably accessible as it is today.

If this continues it will make the changeover more chaotic and painful than is necessary. By sharing ideas about what our future might be like with less affordable energy, we challenge these assumptions and help people and institutions start to make more adaptable plans for the future.

The main reason we are slow to make essential changes is fear of the unknown. Using pre-prepared scenarios helps people to explore what the future might look like in a safe environment and in a way that avoids using our inbuilt assumptions about the future.

Once we have more knowledge about what the future can be and how we can influence it, we are much more likely to be part of the solution instead of part of the problem.

This project will take people through the process of understanding why we are where we are, what the future might bring and how to plan when the future seems so uncertain.

This project aims to inform and empower people to grasp the future with enthusiasm and help to share news of what is happening in the energy world in a easily consumed format.

==2. Outline of tentative content, format and workplan of the activity (the Meeting Place will assist in developing this aspect of the proposal, but it will be helpful to us if you could communicate your initial ideas):==

===Meeting Plan===

It is not yet clear exactly how best to use the expertise that would be available via the Energy Hotel, so here is a rough timetable that can be adapted:

1. Pre-meeting (1 day)

With main stakeholders to go through the plan in detail and identify any additional resources required.
* Run through workshop format at is stands so that everyone understands the scenarios.
* Allocate tasks for next meeting

2. Brainstorming Day (1 day)

* Brainstorm articles on energy
* How could workshops be improved
* How can workshop material be made available to right people
* review website and other technology to be used for communication during the project - Skype, GoToMeeting etc. to ensure everyone is up to speed.

3. Monthly Virtual meetings (1 hour)

* status report.
* issues and risks.
* plans for coming month.

4. Mid project meeting (1 day)

* What went well so far
* What can we do better
* Review plan for second half of project

5. Project close/review (1 day)

* how did we do?
* what did we learn?
* tasks outstanding and who will be responsible for them.
* how can we get this information out there?
* how can we keep the energy scenarios project energised?
* what is the life of the project likely to be?
* what next?

===Deliverables===

* website that includes all material produced during the project.
* workshop pack for use by third parties including timetables, visuals and briefing documents.
* ideas for sharing scenarios with key people/organisations

==Who will be your key partners in organising this== (you don’t necessarily have to have obtained their commitment at this stage)?

ENERGY 21 insert bumf here ?
FEASTA - The foundation for the Economics of Sustainability (NGO)
Cork City Council

==3. Aside from your organising partners, are there any other communities, networks or individuals that you plan to involve?==

In UK :-
*Forum for the Future

In Ireland: -
*Chamber of Commerce
*City and County Councils

==4. Do you need to identify further expertise?==

*Expertise in developing stories about the future that exploit technology that is only just being developed or that is still only an idea.
*How to develop a network able to organise and support workshop givers.

==5. What is the potential impact and anticipated application of the work?==

Empower people to start making a better future by giving them the information to make informed decisions about their own and the future of others.

Our aim is not to provide the answers but to give people the knowledge of what the future may hold so that they can apply this to their own situation.

==6. Who is the intended target audience for the outputs?:==

In both UK and Ireland,

*Business
*Public Sector
*Voluntary Sector
*Schools and Colleges/Universities
*Community Groups

==7. What outputs and avenues for dissemination are envisaged?:==

A website, similar to www.energyscenariosireland.com will be produced to be the central repository for information and discussion. Material from the website will also be diseminated in paper format where appropriate, but we will strive to make efficient use of energy in this project by avoiding unnecessary production or paper and travel.

Programme lasts for a year with report produced after a year then Website

Reports from each workshop to go to local papers, local government, other local organisations

Writeup of output after 1 year to go to national papers and national goverments

handoff to other organisations.

==APPENDIX==

==Energy Scenarios Ireland Project - Phase 1==

The Energy Scenarios Ireland project has been very successful in raising awareness and creating a positive outlook for those who atteneded our workshops. We have also had mentions in national newspapers and on Irish radio. Because the budget for this project was limited, so was the number of workshops we were able to run and we are keen to bring the workshops to a wider audience and in process continue to develop the information available to all on the website.

Some of the feedback we got when asking what stuck in peoples minds:
* The air of optimism and readiness to accept a changing world
* Diversity of issues, scale of challenge, level of uncertainty.
* Looking back from 2015

Work carried out:
* development of four scenarios bound the likely future.
* development of computer based model that shows the impact on the economy of each scenario, including growth and energy use for each sector.
* development of website http://www.energyscenariosireland.com to news about the project and the newspaper articles dated 2016 that reflect what it is like to live and do business in each of the scenarios.
* interviews with business leaders in each economic sector.
* four workshops, two in Cork and two in Dublin, to share findings and gather feedback from the audience.
* preparation of report on findings of the project (due April 2006).

==Workshop Format Example==

Peak Oil - what is it, what does it mean - Colin Campbell 15mins

Scenarios - stories about the future - Phoebe Bright 20 mins (also
include improvisations from acting group from Cork)

What does UK/Ireland look like if we are reactive in our response and what changes will I have made in this scenario? Group work on their own stories. - 20 mins

-- 10 mins break --

Intro to second scenario - Phoebe Bright/actors - 5 mins

What does UK/Ireland look like if we are proactive in our response and what changes will I have made in this scenario? Group work on their own stories. - 20 mins

Review output from groups - 10 mins.

Closing - 10 mins.

===About FEASTA===

Feasta (pronounced f-a-st-a) is an Irish non-profit organisation that has a worldwide membership and has a reputation for thinking outside the box and producing thought provoking material.

<blockquote>
Feasta aims to identify the characteristics (economic, cultural and environmental) of a truly sustainable society, articulate how the necessary transition can be effected and promote the implementation of the measures required for this purpose.
</blockquote>

More about Feasta at their website: http://www.feasta.org

===ENERGY 21===

Energy21 is the hub of a national network of grassroots renewable energy groups. These groups work to make a difference at a local level to reduce our reliance on fossil fuels and to promote a more sustainable future for everyone. A future with clean renewable energy driving progress.

More about Energy 21 at their website: http://http://www.energy21.org.uk/

==Dates==
Preferred dates:

1st choice: Initial Meeting April 2006

2nd choice:

Please email this Expression of Interest form to sarah.keay-bright@eci.ox.ac.uk
or post to: Sarah Keay-Bright, The Meeting Place; Oxford University Centre for the Environment; South Parks Road; Oxford; OX1 3QY; UK.

EPA Report

Phoebebright — Wed, 11 Jan 2006 09:50:28 GMT

Summary:

=Executive Summary=

Key message is that there are short and long term benefits to being proactive in increasing energy productivity, regardless of the rate at which energy prices rise.
Aim is to get people to ask themselves questions about what the future will be like and what we should do in a more informed way, rather than say what we think and invite them to shoot us down. To this end, we will avoid the use of "we need to..." and other prescriptive terms which quickly translates to "I think you should...".

=Introduction=

What we were commissioned to do and how we did it.

=Why energy prices are likely to rise in relation to labour=

This chapter could start with historic price trends, showing how the cost of energy has fallen in terms of the number of minutes of work required to earn a kWh or a litre of petrol. How other prices (in minutes) have fallen in step with the price of fuel. Why we might have just passed a historic turning point and be seeing the beginnings of a reversal of this trend. How high the price of energy might go relative to labour. The short-term factors that could disguise the rising trend (e.g., a global depression brought about by central bank action to dampen-down energy-price induced inflation).

Also need to show that other scenarios are still possible and what would be required for them to come about - in particular why business as usual is unlikely. Stimulates better discussion (???) if we make the case for other scenarios being unlikely rather than focusing on why this one is likely.

=Using scenarios to explore responses to restricted fossil energy supplies=

This would set out the case for using scenarios and stress how they highlight the benefits of adopting the right national and international policies.

Since the start of the project, the case for ongoing higher energy prices has become much stronger, so for the body of the report we are going to focus on two scenarios. Both will assume higher energy prices with one looking at a proactive approach and the other a reactive.

=The use of the ECCO model to assess the scenarios=

This would explain what the ECCO model does and how its predictions are based on an input-output model of the Irish economy. It would add that as higher energy prices would change the way firms etc operated, the input-output model would have to be changed too to reflect that.

=The effects of much higher energy prices on sectors of the Irish economy=

This chapter will built on the previous one by exploring how the following sectors of the economy might change as energy prices rose.

This chapter will built on the previous one explore how the following sectors might change with increasing energy prices in both a proactive and reactive scenario.

The format will be as follows:

Sector

Reactive Scenario
- short description
- benefits
- problems

Proactive Scenario
- short description
- benefits
- problems

Text below fits into proactive scenario.

It will open by pointing out that higher energy prices mean that capital equipment will cost more in relation to labour, too, and that, as a result, there will be a tendency for businesses to become less capital-intensive. This might be the place for a discussion of the effects of higher energy prices on economic growth.

==Energy services==
The development of renewable energy sources.
The move away from the generation of electricity in a few locations to distributed generation because of the need to use heat which is currently wasted and to avoid line losses. The effects of this on the grid and on the location of energy-intensive activities. Retrofitting of CHP plants in urban areas. Awareness of need not to use high-grade energy for low-grade tasks.

==Transport, distribution and tourism==
After energy, this will be the sector most profoundly affected by the higher energy costs. The end of just-in-time delivery systems, weekend break holidays, two-car households. The growth of new types of collective delivery service. Stepping down to a less energy-intensive transport mode. (i.e., shift from plane to train, car to bus, bus to bike). Widespread ownership of small electric/compressed air cars for short journeys. Use of hired or car-club vehicles for exceptional, longer trips.

==Manufacturing==
Not only will machinery cost more, but materials will do too. Firms will tend to move away from the IKEA model which makes large quantities of a very few products on automated equipment and then ships them around the world to much less capital-intensive but more flexible production which makes smaller quantities of a greater range of products in each factory. The need for higher levels of skill.

==The construction sector==
The end of road and airport construction. Greatly reduced demand for new buildings, but compensating interest in conversions and improving energy efficiency of existing buildings. The few new buildings will shift away from energy-intensive materials to low energy ones.

==Agriculture==
Significantly higher prices for food enables more labour to be employed. New opportunities from energy crops and biogas digesters and also from the replacement of imported produce with flowers and vegetables grown in local glasshouses using heat from CHP plants. Partial shift to low-external input systems selling locally. Irish milk products and meat produced at lower cost than elsewhere in EU because no need for imported feed.

==Retailing and state services==
Many more smaller local schools and cottage hospitals. Return of the travelling shop, which also acts as a parcels delivery and collection vehicle. Packaging becomes very much simpler. Local bottling plants with returnable bottles re-established. Micro breweries spread.

=Effects of these changes on the projections from the ECCO model=

=Effects of the changes on the consumer=

Consumers will find that they are paying much more of their incomes for their food, fuel, clothing and durables. This will leave them with much less to spend on discretionary items such as holidays, restaurants, travel to work and for leisure. They will want to live close to their work and to have access to a garden or allotment on which to grow food. They will want to repair things rather than replace them. The most noticeable change will be in house prices. These will drop steadily as people find that they cannot afford to support the size of mortgage people typically take on at present. Some houses – those in rural areas without land, for example – might be abandoned altogether, just as many were in the midlands as a result of emigration.

''From Nicola''
In the section on 'effects on the consumer' I would make explicit the idea of a tendency toward ruralisation: it follows logically from the idea that business would scatter outward from urban centres as proximity becomes crucial with rising transport costs and as more people choose to live in a place where they can have an allotment. Result: a more even distribution of population across the country with small-scale local hubs/clusters rather than cities/conurbations. This would also bring changes in patterns of cultural life and the leisure industry, a further effect on consumers/citizens and on the economy.

(Of course this also necessitates a change in representation, perceptions and education: for a transition to ruralisation and scaling down to occur smoothly and to any degree pre-emptively, these things need to be explained, (re)defined, valorised - in other words, a continuous concerted governmental campaign backed by sustainable enterprise. That is maybe not strictly within the remit of the report but could be included in the conclusions when the report is drafted in full.)

=Conclusions=

=Appendices=

==The scenarios in detail==

==The ECCO model in detail==

Including the improvements made to it during the project.

==Output from the workshops==

Especially energy policy characteristics

Transport21

Phoebebright — Mon, 28 Nov 2005 17:57:24 GMT

Summary:

<h2>Rail - Intercity</h2>

<table>
<tr><td colspan="2">
<h3>Transport 21 Objectives</h3>
<ul type="circle">
<li>A train on the hour from Dublin to Cork</li>
<li>A train every hour at peak from Dublin to Galway</li>
<li>A train every hour at peak from Dublin to Limerick</li>
<li>A train every two hours off peak from Dublin to Galway</li>
<li>A train every hour off peak from Dublin to Limerick</li>
<li>A train every two hours from Dublin to Sligo</li>
<li>A train every two hours from Dublin to Tralee</li>
<li>A train every two hours from Dublin to Waterford</li>
<li>Four trains a day from Dublin to Westport, Ballina and Rosslare</li>
</ul>
</td></tr>

<tr><td width="50%" valign="top">
<h3>Business As Usual</h3>
<b>What was done</b>
<ul type="circle">
<li>Purchase 187 new rail carriages</li>
<li>Purchase additional 20 new diesel powered trains from Spain</li>
<li>Increase staff by 20%</li>
<li>Improve signalling </li>
<li>Additional track from Heuston to Portalington increased commuter traffic</li>
</ul>

<b>Review in 2015</b>
<ul type="circle">
<li>Some increase in frequency of trains but without substantial investment in rail infrastructure and staff costs, the railway has been unable to compete with the car. The railway continues to be seen as expensive and lacking in flexability.</li>
<li>The investment in new rolling stock has led to improved the quality of service for passengers and with increases in fuel prices of the last 10 years, so commuters have switched from car to train.</li>
</ul>
</td>
<td width="50%" valign="top">
<h3>Enlightened Transition</h3>
<b>What was done</b>
<ul type="circle">
<li> New line from Ennis to Claremorris and extended to Sligo in 2012</li>
<li> Investment in Freight infrastructure </li>
<li> Switch to Electric trains via hybrid diesel/battery system</li>
</ul>
News Story: http://news.energyscenariosireland.com/index.php/esi/article/first_electric_train_for_iarnrod_eireann

</td></tr>

<tr><td>
<h3>Localisation</h3>
<b>What was done</b>
As government quickly ran out of cash for structural investment, plans to upgrade rail network were quickly halted. Despite lack of funding, lines were kept open as maintenance of track was not an issue with the main cost being labour and significant investment in rolling stock in 2004-2006 meant the rail network has been kept running.
</td>
<td>
<h3>Fair Shares</h3>
<b>What was done</b>
Unable to invest in new lines though funding is now in the pipeline
Conversion to biodiesel well under way and slow conversion to electric trains that can take advantage of relatively cheap wind power.

News Story: http://news.energyscenariosireland.com/index.php/esi/article/trains_never_stop
</td></tr>
</table>

About Us

Phoebebright — Wed, 10 Aug 2005 15:07:03 GMT

Summary:

__NOTOC__
==Richard Douthwaite==

[[Image:Richard_D.jpg|left|145px]]

Richard Douthwaite is an economist and writer with a particular interest in energy supplies and in economic growth. He is the editor of ''Before the Wells Run Dry – Ireland’s Transition to Renewable Energy'' (2003) , and ''To Catch the Wind - The Potential for Community Ownership of Windfarms in Ireland''. (2004) With David Healy he wrote ''Subsidies and Emissions of Greenhouse Gases from Fossil Fuels'' which was published by Comhar in 2004. He was a co-founder of Feasta and edits its biennial journal, ''The Feasta Review''.

He can be contacted at richard@douthwaite.net or on (098) 25313

<div class="clear"> </div>

==Phoebe Bright==

[[Image:Phoebe_Bright.jpg|right]]Phoebe Bright comes from a business background having worked as a consultant with companies as diverse as The London Stock Exchange, TOTAL Oil, Chase Manhattan Bank and Metropolis Recording Studios. She also found time to setup and successfully run a Flying School at Shoreham Airport in the UK. Phoebe brings her expertise in sustainable business, scenario planning and the internet to this project.

She can be contacted at: phoebebright@vividlogic.ie or (023) 55195.

<div class="clear"> </div>

==Larry Staudt==

[[Image:LS1.jpg|left]]Lawrence Staudt is a lecturer at Dundalk Institute of Technology, where he manages the Centre for Renewable Energy - a renewable energy research centre. He has been an engineer for ESB and Airtricity, and was engineering manager of a wind turbine company in the United States. He has been working in the field of renewable energy since 1978. He is currently chairman of the Irish Renewable Energy Council - an umbrella group of the various renewable energy associations in Ireland.

He can be contacted at: credit@dkit.ie or (042) 937 0574

<div class="clear"> </div>

==Ray Byrne==

[[Image:RayByrne.jpg|right]]Ray Byrne comes from a physics and engineering background and has worked as an electronic design engineer from 1997 to 2003 in Ireland and Switzerland for companies such as CEVA-DSP and XEMICS. In 2004 he obtained a MSc in Renewable Energy Systems Technology at Loughborough University UK and currently works as a project engineer at the Centre For Renewable Energy at Dundalk Institute of Technology. Ray brings his computer modelling skills to simulate and modify the ECCO model used in this project.

<div class="clear"> </div>

==Dave Crane==

Dave Crane has a background in Environmental Science, Ecological Economics and Computing. He has worked with the ECCO models for over ten years, applying it to national economies such as the UK, the EU, Australia, PR China and the Republic of Ireland. He has been affiliated with the University of Edinburgh and the Centre for Human Ecology, Edinburgh, and currently lives and works in Gloucestershire, UK.

Analysis

Phoebebright — Wed, 10 Aug 2005 14:55:34 GMT

Summary:

__NOTOC__
{{:The ECCO Model}}

{{:Results from ECCO Model}}

Reporters Briefing

Phoebebright — Thu, 28 Jul 2005 20:53:48 GMT

Summary:

==Briefing for Reporters - The Future Times==

<b>From the Editor,</b>

Good articles do not need to be long. Just enough to give your readers a different insight into that scenario. If there are any supporting URLs for your article, you can add them as a comment to the story. Alternatively, write an advertisment, a sports report, book review, tv schedule or whatever inspires you.

Like all editors, I retain the right to use your story or not and to make changes if required.

Please read the following notes and have fun. Any questions, please don't hesitate to email me: phoebebright@spamcop.net

If you are unfamiliar with Peak Oil, read an introduction here: [[Peak Oil]]

If you have not come across Scenario Planning before, read a short introduction here: [[Scenario Planning]]

Read about each of the Scenarios in brief to clarify the differences between them and ensure you submit a story to the appropriate scenario:

Remember scenarios are not predictions, they are challenging stories about the future. So accept that 10 years has passed and many things happened that you did not expect and some things that you did. What is life like?

* [[BAU_1Page | Business As Usual]]
* [[Enlightened_1Page | Enlightened Transition]]
* [[Localisation_1Page | Localisation]]
* [[FairShares_1Page | Fair Shares]]

Then read your chosen scenario in detail:

* [[Business As Usual]]
* [[Enlightened Transition]]
* [[Localisation]]
* [[Fair Shares]]

If you are ready, [http://news.energyscenariosireland.com/index.php/esi/Contribution/ Get Started]

If you need inspiration, here are some [http://news.energyscenariosireland.com/index.php/esi/article/tax_payer_revolt_over_polluting_industry_cleanup_costs/ headlines] that need text:

FairShares Economy Summary

Raybyrne — Wed, 20 Jul 2005 14:45:00 GMT

Summary: /*Fair Shares Summary*/

==Fair Shares Summary==

[[Image:Manufacturing output all.gif|thumb|left]]Fair Shares eventually lead to economic decline as manufacturing and other associated industries turn lower scale. More localised small scale, less energy intensive, industries develop and the economy weathers the storm longer and far better than is the case for localisation.
<br style="clear:both" />

Localisation Economy Summary

Raybyrne — Wed, 20 Jul 2005 11:42:37 GMT

Summary: /*Fair Shares Summary*/

==Localisation Summary==

[[Image:Manufacturing output all.gif|thumb|left]] The economy contracts and collapses with the rising oil prices. As oil prices rise economic growth declines resulting in the demand for oil getting less, which may temporarily reduce the price of oil causing an initial economic recovery but only to collapse completely again. The economy gets a real battering under the localisation scenario, from which it can't recover.
<br style="clear:both" />

Enlightened Life

Admin — Wed, 20 Jul 2005 09:54:20 GMT

Summary:

==Living in 2015==

I hate politicians. Back in 2005, the coalition government they had then got a bee in its collective bonnet about how oil and gas were going to run out in 25 years’ time and how we’d better get ready for it. Talk about Chicken Little and the sky falling! Anyway, they started distorting the market by putting up energy prices and giving subsidies, grants and tax breaks to encourage the generation of all sorts of renewable energy. The big firms like Airtricity did well out of the taxpayer, of course, but a lot of smaller people did as well, particularly after a scheme came in which enabled communities to start generating their own heat and electricity and distributing it through their own networks of pipes and cables.

The present government is no better, it says that the higher prices we are paying for our power here are enabling the business sector and the general public to avoid making “stranded investments”. by which they mean investments that are totally inappropriate to a high energy cost world. Have you ever heard such jargon? And such nonsense! It’s them that are creating the high prices to reward their political supporters. It’s not a high cost energy world and other countries without these silly policies are growing faster than we are.

Is not up to government to worry about what will happen in the long terms. The market can do that and, when shortages really do appear, then firms can make money honestly by sorting them out.

Enlightened Economy Summary

Raybyrne — Wed, 20 Jul 2005 09:52:54 GMT

Summary: /*Enlightened Transition Summary*/

==Enlightened Transition Summary==

[[Image:Manufacturing output all.gif|thumb|left]]The move to renewable energy sources causes the economy to reach a steady state. The reduced dependence on fossil fuels causes a very moderate decline in the economy after 2030. The enlightened transition scenario manages to achieve a steady state, as it much less dependent on fossil fuel imports but declines somewhat. Also Ireland may have installed all its available renewable energy capacity by 2040 with any excess energy requirements coming from dwindling expensive imported fossil fuels hence the moderate decline in manufacturing output after 2040.
<br style="clear:both" />

FairShares 1Page

Admin — Wed, 20 Jul 2005 09:01:17 GMT

Summary:

__NOTOC__
=Fair Shares in 2015=

<table width="100%" class="fairshares">
<tr>
<td colspan="2">
{{:FairShares_Overview}}
</td>
</tr>
<tr>
<td colspan="2">
{{:FairShares_Economy_Summary}}
</td>
</tr>
<tr>
<td valign="top" width="40%">
{{:FairShares_Facts}}
</td>
<td valign="top">
{{:FairShares_Culture}}
</td>
</tr>
</table>

Localisation 1Page

Admin — Wed, 20 Jul 2005 09:00:34 GMT

Summary:

__NOTOC__
=Localisation in 2015=

<table width="100%" class="local">
<tr>
<td colspan="2">
{{:Localisation_Overview}}
</td>
</tr>
<tr>
<td colspan="2">
{{:Localisation_Economy_Summary}}
</td>
</tr>
<tr>
<td valign="top">
{{:Localisation_Facts}}
</td>
<td valign="top">
{{:Localisation_Culture}}
</td>
</tr>
</table>

Enlightened 1Page

Admin — Wed, 20 Jul 2005 08:56:25 GMT

Summary:

__NOTOC__
=Enlightened Transition in 2015=

<table width="100%" class="enlightened">
<tr>
<td colspan="2">
{{:Enlightened_Overview}}
</td>
</tr>
<tr>
<td colspan="2">
{{:Enlightened_Economy_Summary}}
</td>
</tr>
<tr>
<td valign="top" width="40%">
{{:Enlightened_Facts}}
</td>
<td valign="top">
{{:Enlightened_Culture}}
</td>
</tr>
</table>

ToDo

Admin — Tue, 19 Jul 2005 17:04:06 GMT

Summary:

=To Do List=

* Enlightened Transition needs a longer introduction - http://www.energyscenariosireland.com/wiki/index.php?title=Enlightened_Overview&action=edit
* Localisation Overview is too long - http://www.energyscenariosireland.com/wiki/index.php?title=Localisation_Overview&action=edit - If necessary, create a separate page with more details - such as alternative reasons for economy collapse.

* Fair Shares Intro too short but this might be helpful - http://www.energyscenariosireland.com/wiki/Fair_Shares_Overview_2015

* Need lifestory for Local and FS
* Need Economics Summary for Local and FS
* Need Economics Detail (unless summary does for both 1 page and detail page) for all

BAU Life

Admin — Tue, 19 Jul 2005 16:26:22 GMT

Summary:

==Life in 2015 - Business As Usual==

I'm a knowledge worker with Microsoft Ireland. about the only thing that is not change for me in the last ten years is the company I work for. In 2005 I was a techie working in Dublin and commuting three hours every day. Now I live in a small village outside Tralee in County Kerry and commute to my purpose built office next door.

We build this luxury eco home on the age of the village looking out to sea in 2007, just before the end of housing boom. Like everyone else, we moved our money out of Irish property and into Eastern Europe and I think this is what caused a soft landing for the property market. Even in 2007 we could see that energy prices were only going to go up so we put in all latest technology to make our house really efficient and we find it costs no more to run than our neighbours little house built by a local developer.

We chose this area because it is unspoiled. None of the big farmers have managed to buy the land here, or don't want it! It is mostly mountain and small fields. The problem is, the local farmers don't seem to have much interest in keeping the farms tidy, so some areas are starting to look run down. The village has kept its quaint old Irish look, even though many of the people living here are now Chinese! We try to buy something in local shop each week to show we support the village, but with LIdl doing free delivery with online ordering, it's usually own a litre of milk or the newspaper on Sunday.

BAU Economy Summary

Phoebebright — Tue, 19 Jul 2005 13:18:06 GMT

Summary:

==Business As Usual Economy Summary==

[[Image:Manufacturing output all.gif|thumb|left]]This graph shows the indexed manufacturing output of the Irish economy, as a guide to the overall state of the economy's health. Economic Growth continues until energy prices in Ireland make us uncompetitive in relation to other European counties, who have invested significantly more in alternative energy supply. The Ecco model suggests this happening in 2030. Clearly manufacturing output in the Business as Usual scenario takes a nose dive soon after the 2030 oil peak when the cost of imported fossil fuels rise sharply.
<br style="clear:both" />

BAU 1Page

Phoebebright — Tue, 19 Jul 2005 12:56:30 GMT

Summary:

__NOTOC__
=Business As Usual in 2015=

<table width="100%" class="bau">
<tr>
<td colspan="2">
{{:BAU_Overview}}
</td>
</tr>
<tr>
<td colspan="2">
{{:BAU_Economy_Summary}}
</td>
</tr>
<tr>
<td valign="top">
{{:BAU_Facts}}
</td>
<td valign="top">
{{:BAU_Culture}}
</td>
</tr>
</table>

About

Phoebebright — Thu, 14 Jul 2005 16:45:10 GMT

Summary:

__NOTOC__
=Too little oil being found to maintain production=

[[Image:TheGrowingGap.jpg|frame|none|The rate at which oil is being discovered has been falling since 1981 and we now use five barrels for every one being found. Unless the rate of discovery increases greatly, production will have to fall. ]]

==Energy Supplies and Ireland’s Future==

Almost nothing about Ireland’s future energy supplies is certain except the fact that the world’s supplies of oil, coal and gas began running out on the day that they were first used. There are still huge supplies of coal but oil and gas are getting scarce and the amount of energy that humanity will be able to get from these two key fuels is expected to peak within the next few years and then start to decline.

Exactly when this peak will occur is the subject of heated debate. The International Energy Agency (IEA) believes that oil output can go on increasing for the next 25 years - but only if enough capital is invested in finding and producing it. Others, like Chris Skrebowski, the editor of the Petroleum Review, thinks that the peak will be reached in the next two years. “There are not enough large-scale projects in the development pipeline right now to offset declining production in mature oil fields and to meet global demand growth beyond 2007” he says.

With gas, the situation is even more confused. The production of gas in Europe has already peaked and some say the global peak could come as soon as 2010. Others expect world production to level off around 2015 but think that the decline might not start until 2040.

Whenever it happens, however, there is universal agreement that the combined oil and gas peak will have far-reaching effects on the way we live our lives. Energy use is fundamental to everything we do and the present level of global output is only possible because fossil fuels are available to power our production and distribution systems. As a result, unless major replacement sources of energy are developed in time, a declining supply of oil will mean that economic growth becomes impossible. Indeed, the world economy is likely to shrink. The IEA graph below shows how closely the rate of increase in the world’s output (shown as Real GDP, the blue line) is linked to increases in oil use, the red line.

==Economic growth linked to energy use==

[[Image:DemandVGDP.jpg|frame|none]]

==How high will prices go?==

Another area of debate is over the effect that shortages of oil and gas will have on their prices. If the two fuels are getting scarcer, you might think that they will become progressively more expensive. That’s certainly a possibility, but many people think that higher energy prices could push the global economy into a depression. If so, major construction projects would be cancelled, unemployment would soar, energy demand plummet and, as a result, the prices of all fuels would fall too. If this happened, of course, it would mean that the major oil companies never found it profitable to put up the capital required to develop new oil and gas fields. Nor would it be attractive to develop renewable energy sources. In short, no-one knows how important each possible energy source will be in the future and how high - or low - energy prices might be.

With this level of uncertainty, how can anyone reasonably plan for their organisation’s future? Scenario Planning is one answer. It is a technique developed by the Global Business Environment Unit of Shell International and helped the company prepare for the oil price shocks in 1973 and 1979. Many companies have used it since, including British Airways, ICL and United Distillers. It involves the creation of two or more plausible scenarios about the future rather than a single prediction. This is done because

* A prediction is never right - the unexpected always happens and the assumptions, conscious and unconscious, that apply today may not apply tomorrow.
* People either agree or disagree with a single prediction so it is difficult to gain consensus. Because scenario planning is not trying to predict the future, but only find plausible futures, consensus becomes possible.
* Good scenarios challenge people’s thinking and stimulate discussion, helping organisations to create a common language to talk about the future.

Organisations then test their plans against each scenario to see how they would perform. If the results are poor, they can change their strategy to one which performs better under each one.

Feasta, the Foundation for the Economics of Sustainability, has created four plausible scenarios that, taken together, define the area in which the world’s energy future will lie – provided, of course, no major wars, plagues or similar catastrophes happen. This site presents those scenarios and gives visitors the chance to comment on them.

{{:ScenarioChart}}

Two of our scenarios, Business as Usual, and Enlightened Transition, assume that oil peak does not occur for 25 years, but in one case we have a good proactive government and in the other case the market is allowed to determine the path along which Ireland develops. In the other two scenarios, we assume that the oil peak takes place next year. In Enforced Localisation, the world’s central banks and governments handle it really badly and bring about a global depression. In Fair Shares, however, tradable energy ration permits are introduced so that the poorest people in the world are still able to afford food and kerosene for their lamps. The increase in their purchasing power as a result of selling their ration permits supports the world economy and provides plenty of work. In rich countries like Ireland, however, the cost of buying the ration permits from the poorer countries reduces people’s purchasing power to a limited extent.

All the scenarios have been explored using [[The_ECCO_Model|ECCO]], a computer model of energy and resource flows in the Irish economy. This has enabled us to see how they might work out over the next fifty years.

<blockquote>
“Scenario planning can help us understand the uncertainties that lie before us, and what they might mean. It helps us “rehearse” our responses to those possible futures. And it helps us spot them as they begin to unfold.” (Wilkinson, Scenarios: Special Wired Edition, January 1996).
</blockquote>

To read a more details about Peak Oil and the Energy Scenarios, go to the [[Introduction|Introduction to Energy Scenarios]]

Or go the the contents page of the [[Main_Page|Information Section]]

[[Category:Overview]]

Localisation Culture

Phoebebright — Mon, 30 May 2005 18:40:23 GMT

Summary:

==Culture==

===What are we eating?===
* Local farm & home grown produce
* Nuts, berries & roots
* Tinned goods stockpiled by survivalists
* Atlantic seaweed
===What are we watching?===
* Ground Force are now converting gardens for vegetable growing
* Starship MicroEnterprise
* Jim'll Fix It
===Most popular Websites ===
* www.growyourownfood.com
* www.creditunions.ie
* www.fas.ie

===What are we selling===
* Working horse for sale. One owner, in good condition with new set of steel shoes. Doesn't eat much and high emissions will help grow your cabages! Loves to work.
* Best wheelbarrows in town for sale in exchange for cars in sound condition.
* Mobile Super Shop Bank - Post Office - Library See our new timetable at http://www.shopcometou.cork
* Bouncy Castles - Closing Down Sale - Everything Must Go
* Veg growing classes start next Wednesday at 7pm in the Community Centre.
* We own an old landfill. Do you want what’s in it?

===Headlines===
* Irish draft horse prices now higher than those of new tractors - <small>Horse make a return to the farm.</small>
* Survey reveals Irish now slimmer and fitter than 2005 - <small>We are living healthier lives - better food and more excercise.</small>
* Liffy hand-dredged for bikes and prams - <small>One of the big differences between 2015 and 1805 is that we have Junk. All kinds of junk is being given a new lease of life.</small>
* Castlecomer coal mine reopened - <small>Ireland's limited coal mines are being reopened.</small>
* Cork warlords declare independant state - <small>Law and order has broken down in some areas. </small>
* Riots at allotments over cabbage - <small>Food supplies can be very limited at the end of the winter and in some areas there are fights over remaining food supplies.</small>
* Foreign correspondants sacked as Ireland looses interest in outside world - <small>We are foced to become virtually self-sufficient for our essential needs and therefore have little interest is what is happening out there.</small>
* Bicycle factory fueld by biomass and wind opens in Westport - <small>Many businesses are gone bust, but many more, usually small scale and local, are opening.</small>

Localisation Facts

Phoebebright — Mon, 30 May 2005 18:38:59 GMT

Summary:

==Key Localisation Facts in 2015==

<h2>Government Policies</h2>
* Investment in capital projects ceases through lack of funding
* Interest rates increase to counter inflation caused by high fuel costs
* Government is destabilised due to restless impoverished citizens
<h2>Economy</h2>
* Energy prices are destabilised
* Unemployment is widespread
<h2>Business</h2>
* Multinationals decentralise to try and adapt to changing supply and demand
* Construction ceases completely due to prohibitive energy costs and lack of buyers' market
* Business with local suppliers & customers thrives; repair services also in demand
<h2>Households </h2>
* People start growing food for personal use
* Local currencies develop
* Debt crisis as home-owners caught in negative equity Culture

Fair Shares Overview 2015

Phoebebright — Mon, 30 May 2005 16:33:38 GMT

Summary:

==Fair shares in 2015==

Oil peaked in 2007 but the international response to the shortage of oil was immediate. Governments realised that, without an international agreement to share out the limited amount of oil and gas on a non-market basis, over-high oil prices would threaten both oil-producing and oil-consuming countries with depression and financial ruin.

A system called Cap and Share was put in place. (For more details see http://www.capandshare.org) This held that everyone on the planet had an equal claim to be able to use the atmosphere as a dump for his or her greenhouse gas emissions. Accordingly, an international organisation was set up to ration the use of the atmosphere. It now issues a smaller and smaller amount of permits each year to everyone on earth individually so that the total amount of fossil fuel we use before the emission rate has fallen to the level of the earth’s capacity to absorb it is consistent with reaching a greenhouse gas concentration target which, we hope, will limit the average global temperature to less than 2 degrees C. This annual issue is a massive job and one carried out in the teeth of fierce opposition from some governments who would like to have cornered the permits for themselves. However, it does give everyone an income which compensates them, in part in energy-intensive countries like Ireland, and often over-fully in poorer countries, for the extra cost of everything they buy due to the higher energy prices. Everyone sells their permits as soon as they get them and uses the money for their ordinary living. It has created huge markets around the world for lots of simple products.

In addition, the high energy prices have given a huge boost not only to the switch to renewable energy but also to ways of living which use little energy. We, in Ireland, are poorer than we were because a lot of our money goes overseas to buy emissions permits. We can no longer buy lots of things which we neglect or throw away when it becomes fashionable. We are always looking for things which are easily repairable and will last. I never buy stuff not made in the EU because I need to be sure that the spares will be available when I need them. Lots of local authorities are relieved that they did not invest in incinerators because there’s so little that’s burnable that’s being thrown away.

The demand from the poorer countries has created plenty of jobs in both manufacturing and in the farm sector, so there’s plenty of work, even if the money doesn’t go very far. I don’t have a car these days but I do have an electric bicycle which I charge up every night. There's very little house building going on - the costs are high because of the embodied energy, in spite of the use of timber-frame. In any case, lots more houses than were needed were built around the turn of the century so we spend what money we can adapting them for our needs and getting them up to a decent energy standard. Houses with garages sell well because people use the space for a workshop.

Fairshares Culture

Phoebebright — Fri, 27 May 2005 16:48:12 GMT

Summary:

==Culture==

===What are we eating?===

* More local & seasonal due to increase in transport costs.
* Semi-organic cabbage (fertilizers and pesticides expensive)
* Irish farmed fish
* Pasta (dried) produced in Ireland
* Oranges from Spain (by boat)

===What are we watching?===
* Ground Force are now converting gardens for vegetable growing
* Community TV
* Neighbours from Heaven

===Most popular Websites===
* www.sharensave.org
* www.c&c.gov.ie
* www.bus&rail_timetables.ie

===What are we selling===
* Cold press for rapeseed.
* Wood burning stoves for sale, conversions from beer barrels add style.
* Turnips in exchange for 1/2 ton of topsoil
* For sale, 10 boxes of Organic Apples.

===Headlines===
* Census shows poverty halved in last five years - <small>Those previously on the povery line are well suited to making the best of tight times and do better than the middle class unprepared for making do with very little.</small>
* Out of town shopping centre bankrupt - <small>People can no longer want to make a special journey just to do the shopping - they want to combine many tasks for each journey so prefer going to a town or city.</small>
* Crack down on loan sharks intimiation of pensioners for their permits - <small>Everyone has permits to sell and older people do not always understand their value or how to sell them.</small>
* Kilkenny farmers market raided - <small>Farmers Markets are now found in all towns but this makes it hard to check everyone is paying their taxes!</small>
* Tenant farming is new form of slavery - <small>The rich are always with us. The rich have land and use tenant farmers to work the land. In some cases they offer very little to the tenant farmers.</small>
* Salmon caught in Liffy again - <small>Lack of waste has reduced the pollution going into the river that flows through Dublin, enough that salmon are now using the river again.</small>
* 100mpg family car launched - <small>There are still people who can afford new cars but there has not been significant development in car technology because of lower demand. </small>
* Return to sail - <small>Sailing ships are a cheap form of transport and ships are being retrofitted with sail to to used when conditions allow.</small>
* Road deaths fall again - <small>Less cars, less danger.</small>

FairShares Facts

Phoebebright — Fri, 27 May 2005 16:41:56 GMT

Summary:

==Key Fair Shares Facts in 2015==

===Government Policies===
* Maintaining economy on even keel the priority
* Little money to invest as being used to purchase energy permits.
* Home generated electrcicity can now be sold back to the grid but is taxed as income.

===Economy===
* Energy prices have grown at 6% per year since 2005
* Petrol prices have increased by 80% since then
* Electricity prices have also increased by 80%
* Inflation tops 10% as higher energy costs work their way through the European economy. Salaries and wages fail to keep up although demand for labour is high.

===Business===
* Renewables are now 30% of energy generation, much of it individual or locally generated
* Resurgence of local business with lower overheads than global corporations

===Households===
* Plastic packaging becomes progressively expensive. Non-returnable glass & aluminium containers are banned
* Dramatic decrease in number of cars on the road
* Decline in number of single person households

FairShares Factsheet

Phoebebright — Fri, 27 May 2005 16:32:16 GMT

Summary:

__NOTOC__
<div class="fairshares">
=Fair Shares - 1st June 2015=
Oil Peaks 2007 - Proactive response

[[Image:Cost_Of_Fuel.gif]]

{{:Fair_Shares_Overview_2015}}

<table border="2" cellpadding="4" >
<tr>
<td>
{{:FairShares_Facts}}
</td>
<td>
{{:FairShares_Culture}}
</td>
</tr>
</table>

[[Category:Fair Shares]]
</div>

Enlightened Facts

Phoebebright — Fri, 27 May 2005 15:49:54 GMT

Summary:

==Key Enlightened Transition Facts in 2015==

===Government Policies===
* The security of Ireland’s energy supplies is put ahead of immediate low energy prices.
* No new contracts for major road-building projects or airport expansion
* Congestion charging is introduced
* Aviation fuel is taxed as a result of EU Directive

===Economy===
* Energy prices have grown at 6% per year since 2005
* Petrol prices have increased by 80% since then
* Electricity prices have also increased by 80%

===Business===
* Renewables now 30% of energy generation
* Waste a big issue - much is exported
* 5 Incinerators built since 2005

===Households===
* Saving money by reducing waste of all kinds is part of the psyche
* We no longer expect to get all kinds of fruit and veg all through the year
* Housing boom ended in 2009 but soft landing
* Smart metering in all homes allows variable pricing of electricity

Enlightened Factsheet

Phoebebright — Fri, 27 May 2005 15:32:12 GMT

Summary:

__NOTOC__
=Enlightened Transition - 1st June 2015=

[[Image:Cost_Of_Fuel.gif]]

{{:Enlightened_Transition_Overview_2015}}

<table border="2" cellpadding="4" >
<tr>
<td>
{{:Enlightened_Facts}}
</td>
<td>
{{:Enlightened_Culture}}
</td>
</tr>
</table>

BAU Facts

Phoebebright — Thu, 26 May 2005 21:53:47 GMT

Summary:

==Key Business As Usual Facts in 2015==

===Government Policies===
* Growth at all costs
* Continued investment in roads and airports
* No carbon taxes
* Energy from current sources - gas, oil, peat
* Comply with EU but no more and never in a rush to do so

===Economy===
* Energy prices growing at 6% per year in 2015
* Petrol prices have increased by 37% since 2005
* Electricity prices have increased by 40% since 2005

===Business===
* Renewables now 15% of electricity generation
* Waste a big issue - much is exported
* 5 Incinerators built since 2005

===Households===
* We are running to stand still - many people have 2 or 3 jobs
* Long commutes are common though working from home part-time is increasing
* Housing boom ended in 2009 but soft landing

Price Points

Phoebebright — Tue, 17 May 2005 08:44:57 GMT

Summary:

=Price Points=

The following questions were asked on feedback forms and the answers are listed:

==Green Party Conference may 2005==

===If you use a car regularly, how much has/would the cost of petrol per litre have to go up before you changed your driving habits?===
All ready have, 97c,2.50-3.00, no car, no car, no car, changed already,no car

===If you buy bottled water, how much has/would it have to go up before you switched to tap water?===
3.00,clean safe tap water before switching, n/a, n/a,when not flouridized, n/a, n/a,

Green Party Conference Output

Phoebebright — Sun, 15 May 2005 16:15:20 GMT

Summary:

==Green Party Conference, May 2005==

<b>It is May 2015:</b>

==How have your eating habits changed in the last 10 years? What did you have for dinner yesterday and where did it come from?==

===Business As Usual===
* Farmed salmon increase in price due to transport costs.
* Scenario is implausible
* Same menu, different sources
* More restricted choice

===Enlightened Transition===
* Fish from ponds on farms
* Organic turnkey from an integrated farm
* Food eaten is more seasonal
* Eating Irish beef and lamb, less is exported.
* Shift from mass production products to locally produced products
* Food is more expensive.
* Tea and Coffee is available but twice the price
* Less imported products - discount stores such as Lidl
* We have less choice of what we eat
* Increased population
* Diet more like 1950s
* Sugar beet factories re-opened

===Localisation===
* Eating local meat and veg.
* Less variety, imported, processed

===Fair Shares===
* Semi-organic growing - little artificial fertilisers/pesticides.
* Irish produce as imports very expensive
* Seasonal food as out of season very expensive
* More processed and frozen or dried food.
* GMO's are widely grown.
Menu:

Starter
* Mixed local salad
* Potatoe and leek soup
Main course:
* Freshwater farmed fish
* Rabbit stroganoff
* Irish stew
* Quorn stew
* Nettle
* Onions
* Spring Cabbage
Dessert:
* Rubard Crumble
* Apple pie

with Sloe wine and herb tea.

==What energy saving changes have you made to your home in the last 10 years?==

===Business As Usual===
* Insulation
* Solar Panels
* Energy efficient light bulbs
* Wood fired stoves
* Increased awareness of cost of energy and waste in the home
* Use of showers of instead of baths

===Enlightened Transition===
* Insulation in all areas - windows, walls, roof
* Economic machism helped us to adopt passive solar construction methods - make homes more affordable.
* Solar panels, wind generators and heat pumps all in common use.
* Underground tanks used to store warm water from solar panels
* Houses are generally colder, we have more blankets on the bed and wear warm clothes inside.
* Wood pellet stoves have become popular

===Localisation===
* More insulation
* Fireplaces replaced by wood stoves.
* Wooly jumpers

===Fair Shares===
* Two new subterranean rooms lit from the sky
* Solar panels on the roof
* Biomass boiler using woodchips
* Geothermal heat pump to heat underfloor
* Small wind turbine/community turbines
* Insulate walls - retrofit
* Mechanical ventilation and heat recovery
* Triple glazing, pilkington K
* Smaller windows
* Shutters

[[Credits]]

Credits

Phoebebright — Sun, 15 May 2005 15:33:52 GMT

Summary:

=Thanks to the following People who helped to make the scenarios vivid!=

==At the Green Party Convention, May 15th 2005==

Sandi Coman (US), Aidan J. Ffrench (Bray), David Healy, Kieran Cunnane (Galway), Hageu Pelzel (Cork), Rita O'Sullivan (Fengal), Jennifer Sleeman (West Cork), Conor Scott (Wicklow), Jim Malone (Fingal), Gary Mahoney (Kerry), Roger Lamb and all the others who contributed.

Special thanks to facilitators who had challenging job keeping all that energy focused: Michael Hobbs, Kevin McCaughey . Jacqui Hodgson and Bernie Connolly

Cost of Electricity Generation

Phoebebright — Fri, 13 May 2005 13:10:14 GMT

Summary:

[[Image:Cost_Of_Electricity.gif]]

==Commentary==
This graph represents the total physical costs of electricity generation combining both fuel costs and capital costs. In the Business As Usual scenario the shift to other more efficient forms of thermal generation such as combined cycle plant that counteract the rise in fuel prices up to about 2030 when the oil peak occurs but then again.

Renewable energy sources are seen as a capital cost only since the fuel costs are free once these sources have been installed. Clearly the switch to renewable energy sources in the Enlightened Transition and Fair Shares scenarios have an edge over Business As Usual policies in the face of rising fossil fuel prices and both these scenarios follow a similar trend. One reason why the cost drops zero around 2048 in the Fair Shares scenario is that since the economy has a relatively low energy intensity the installed renewable energy sources up to that point are supplying all the energy needs and therefore no new generators are being installed. The fuel costs of the operating renewable generators are already zero. However calculation accuracy of the model that far into the future is limited at the moment.

Localisation results in oscillating costs in electricity generation as the economy booms and contracts resulting in a slower shift from conventional thermal plant for more efficient combined cycle plant. Like the Business as Usual scenario the costs rise again after 2030.

Fair Shares Factsheet

Phoebebright — Tue, 10 May 2005 11:53:37 GMT

Summary:

==Fair Shares Factsheet==

===Overview===

Oil does not peak until 2030 but we start preparing for the peak immediately.

GRAPH

===Key Prices===

Inflation: 3% per year (prices and wages)
Energy Price Growth: 3%
Growth Rate:
Unemployment:

===Affordability===

===Key Facts===

===Winners===

===Loosers===

===Image===

===Headlines===

Localisation Factsheet

Phoebebright — Tue, 10 May 2005 11:53:00 GMT

Summary:

__NOTOC__
<div class="localisatiom">
=Enforced Localisation - 1st June 2015=
Oil Peaks 2007 - Proactive response

[[Image:Cost_Of_Fuel.gif]]

{{:Localisation_Overview_2015}}

<table border="2" cellpadding="4" >
<tr>
<td>
{{:Localisation_Facts}}
</td>
<td>
{{:Localisation_Culture}}
</td>
</tr>
</table>
</div>

Enlightened Transition Factsheet

Phoebebright — Tue, 10 May 2005 11:50:40 GMT

Summary:

==Enlightened Transition Factsheet==

===Overview===

Oil does not peak until 2030 but we start preparing for the peak immediately.

GRAPH

===Key Prices===

Inflation: 3% per year (prices and wages)
Energy Price Growth: 3%
Growth Rate:
Unemployment:

===Affordability===

===Key Facts===

===Image===

===Headlines===

Business As Usual Factsheet

Phoebebright — Tue, 10 May 2005 08:22:47 GMT

Summary:

==Business As Usual Factsheet==

===Overview===

Oil does not peak until 2030 and we continue to allow the market to determine investment.

commentary)

[[Image:Manufacturing_output.gif|700px|left]]Economic Growth continues until energy prices in Ireland make us uncometative in relation to other European counties, who have invested significantly more in alternative energy supply.
[[Image:Renewables.gif|700px|left]]Renewables continue to increase slowly, but with oil and gas prices still relatively low, there is no incentive to invest in alternative technology until it becomes clear that oil and gas prices are about to peak.
<br style="clear:both" />

===Key Prices===

Inflation: 3% per year (prices and wages)
Energy Price Growth: 3%
Growth Rate:
Unemployment:

<table>
<tr height=13>
<td height=13></td>
<td class=xl25 align=right> Price Now </td>
<td>Energy Increase</td>
<td>Inflation</td>
<td>Total Increas<span style='display:none'>e</span></td>
<td class=xl25 align=right> Future Price </td>
<td></td>
</tr>
<tr height=13>
<td height=13>Litre of Petrol</td>
<td class=xl25 align=right> € 1.00 </td>
<td class=xl24 align=right>34%</td>
<td class=xl24 align=right>34%</td>
<td class=xl24 align=right>69%</td>
<td class=xl25 align=right> € 1.69 </td>
<td></td>
</tr>
<tr height=13>
<td height=13>kW of Electricity</td>
<td class=xl25 align=right> € 0.12 </td>
<td class=xl24 align=right>34%</td>
<td class=xl24 align=right>34%</td>
<td class=xl24 align=right>69%</td>
<td class=xl25 align=right> € 0.20 </td>
<td></td>
</tr>
<tr height=13>
<td height=13>Pint of Guiness</td>
<td class=xl25 align=right> € 3.50 </td>
<td class=xl24 align=right>10%</td>
<td class=xl24 align=right>34%</td>
<td class=xl24 align=right>44%</td>
<td class=xl25 align=right> € 5.05 </td>
<td>Taxes are reduced to prevent otherwise higher increase in a pint</td>
</tr>
<tr height=13>
<td height=13>New Toyota Corolla</td>
<td class=xl29 align=right> € 28,000 </td>
<td class=xl24 align=right>34%</td>
<td class=xl24 align=right>34%</td>
<td class=xl24 align=right>69%</td>
<td class=xl29 align=right> € 47,259 </td>
<td></td>
</tr>
<tr height=13>
<td height=13>New 3 Bed Semi</td>
<td class=xl29 align=right> € 450,000 </td>
<td class=xl24 align=right>20%</td>
<td class=xl24 align=right>34%</td>
<td class=xl24 align=right>54%</td>
<td class=xl29 align=right> € 694,762 </td>
<td>Assumes further site price rises and increase construction costs </td>
</tr>
<tr height=13>
<td height=13>Flying to Spain</td>
<td class=xl25 align=right> € 50.00 </td>
<td class=xl24 align=right>50%</td>
<td class=xl24 align=right>34%</td>
<td class=xl24 align=right>84%</td>
<td class=xl25 align=right> € 92.20 </td>
<td>Assumes tax subsidies on aviation fuel are reduced</td>
</tr>
<tr height=13>
<td height=13>Visit to GP</td>
<td class=xl25 align=right> € 40.00 </td>
<td class=xl24 align=right>0%</td>
<td class=xl24 align=right>34%</td>
<td class=xl24 align=right>34%</td>
<td class=xl25 align=right> € 53.76 </td>
<td></td>
</tr>
</table>

===Affordability===

===Key Facts===
* Energy prices grow at 3% per year
* Research continues at its present level into alternative energy sources and into the development of better methods of energy storage, but there is no significant investment as fossil fuel energy remains relatively cheap.
* The level of waste grows in step with national income. Waste disposal will become even more costly
* 5 general waste incinerators by been built by 2015.
* Industry will meet EU regulations but not to exceed them.
* Labour is still regarded as the major cost of production and reducing the cost of labour per unit of output will continue to have priority over reducing the cost of energy.
* Investment in roads and airports continues.
* Energy prices will be kept low to enhance international competitiveness. Carbon taxes will not be introduced.
* Fossil fuel subsidies stay in place
* There is a continued push to increase exports.
* Ireland will continue to concentrate on developing knowledge-intensive (i.e. Low energy) businesses. Goods requiring a large amount of energy in their manufacture will be imported.
* Economic growth will continue to be the primary national goal. To the extent that growth is possible, the capital stock of the country will rise. This will require increased amounts of energy to run and to maintain.

Feedback Form

Phoebebright — Sat, 07 May 2005 11:00:11 GMT

Summary:

Feedback Form

Your Name:

Representing:

Your email:

What were the key learning points for you today?

What do you think went well?

How could we do better?

Who else needs to know about these scenarios?

What else should we be doing?

The conclusions from this seminar will be added to the project's website. If you have further thoughts, we would welcome your comments there. Just go to the appropriate scenario and click on the comment button.

Do you want us to acknowledge your contribution on our website? Yes/No

Do you want to receive emails when we update the website and about future events? They won't average more than one per month. Yes/No

Can we contact you over the next couple of months to see if you have had any further thoughts on the scenarios or the action that government should be taking to prepare for the future? If yes, please supply your phone number.

If your company would benefit from a personalised workshop, contact our consultancy service at the FEASTA office on (01) 405 3615.

Seminar Questions

Phoebebright — Sat, 07 May 2005 10:55:24 GMT

Summary:

==Questions For Workshops on June 1st 2005==

It is 2015.

===For each scenario, start by answering the following questions:===

In 2005, the west side of the High Street in Kilkenny had the following shops and services (plus a few inventions):

** Hibernian Hotel, converted from an old bank
** Irish Nationwide Building Society
** Kerrigans Bar, plus at least one more bar further down the street.
** AIB
** Whytes Pharmacy, plus another three locally-owned chemists further down
** Greetings card shop
** Carraig Donn, a chain tourist shop, mostly sweaters
** Mannings Travel Agent
** Book Centre, a good, large bookshop
** Marie Murphy clothes, plus six other locally-owned clothes shops further down

** Pauls Department Store
** Grahams Shoe Shop plus two other locally-owned shoe shops further down
** O’Connors jewllers, plus two other locally-owned jewellery shops further down
** Metro Coffee shop and deli
** Uncle Sam’s Takeaway, plus another burger takeway (Supermac’s) two shops down.
** Spectra photo
** Ulster Bank
** Pound shop, plus another rther down
** Heartbeat City record shop
** Sherwoods Electric, a big electrical appliance dealer

** Kilkenny People, the local newspaper
** Estate Agent/Auctioneer
** Monsoon, a chain clothing store
** Boots
** Argos,
** Permanent TSB
** Jerry Grace Hairdressers
** Local optician
** Gift shop
** Emerald Gardens Chinese takeway

** Oxfam
** Dunnes Stores,
** Hennessy Sports – trainers and sports-type clothing
** Bookmakers
** National Irish Bank.
** Thai Resteraunt
** Newsagents
** Hardware shop
** Accountant
** Post Office

* Who is still there now and have their services changed?
* What has replaced those that are no longer there?
* Who is doing well, who is doing badly?
* Have these changes affected the net energy consumption of the street?

Working in Sectorial Groups write short newspaper articles or advertisments on the following topics.

==Energy==
* What do you wear in your living room at home on a cold winter’s night?
* Write about the investment opportunities in energy production for small investors? If so, how? Note: they could invest in commercial, community or their own domestic projects.
* Do people invest much in energy saving in the home? If so, how?.
* Do SMEs invest much in energy saving? If so, how?.
* Is energy being generated from waste?
* What is the biggest challenge for the ESB?
* Write a review of "The Hydrogen Economy".
* Looking back to 2005, what aspects of the energy sector then have proved to be impediments to its development over the past ten years? What aspects have helped it progress? What are its strengths today and what are its weaknesses? Where, with hindsight, should the government have intevened and what should it have left alone?
* Write an advertisement to recruit a new CEO for your organsation, or, if you do not work in the energy sector, for the CEO of Eirgrid.

==Transportation==
* Prepare an advertisment for the local paper offering cheap trips to Dublin from Kilkenny.
* Prepare an advertisment for the local paper offering a week’s holiday.
* Prepare an advertismentfor a commuter service into Kilkenny from the outlying areas?
* Write up the opening of a new business service. Include reference to other areas of transport. Why is this new service starting? Is it expecting to win new business from other sectors?
* Write an article on a critical problem for the transport sector.
* Where, with hindsight, could the government have intevened and what should it have left alone?
* Write an advertisement to recruit a new CEO for your organsation or, if you do not work in the transport sector, for the CEO of the Dublin Transport Office..

==Retail & Services==
* Write a review of the hotel business in Kilkenny in 2015. In 2005, The Irish Times reported that Kilkenny was in the midst of a hotel building boom, with so many projects under way that the number of rooms would more than double. What has happened to all these hotels since?
* Where, with hindsight, should the government have intevened and what should it have left alone?
* What are the most and least popular courses for 3rd level students in Kilkenny.
* Where will these 3rd level students be studying?

==Primary Production==
* List the traders at the Farmer's Market?
** What are they selling?
** How often are they open?
** Who is buying there?
* In 2005 "the Agri-business sector continues to be Kilkenny's biggest industries". Is this still true?
* Nationwide, what crops, flocks and herds have increased in importance and which have decreased.? Remember to think about nonfood crops too.
* An old family farm of 120 acres has come on the market. Who will the likely purchaser be? Is farm size still increasing? Have farming techniues changed?
* Is Ireland still importing a lot of organic produce?
* What effect have the changes in energy prices had on the fishing industry and fish farming?
* Where, with hindsight, should the government have intevened and what should it have left alone?

==Manufacturing==
* Write an article about the successes Glanbia has had in 2015
* Write an article about the problems facing Kilkenny Beer
* Write a press release about a new manufacturing business started in the town? What do they make? What methods do they use? Are they replacing another business? Who is their main competition?
* What is the new hot technology for 2015?
* Is ‘Just in Time’ still fashionable?
* Where, with hindsight, should the government of the EU have intervened and what should it have left alone?
* Write an advertisement or press release for your company’s latest product..

==Construction==
* Write an ad for a new house, suitable for a young family, highlighting its main selling points.
* Write about the plans for 2016 for a local construction company. How busy are they? Which sectors are they focusing on? Infrastructure/housebuilding/offices and commercial buildings/public buildings/extensions and alterations (including those related to improving energy efficiency).
* Which construction methods and materials have become more important? Which have lost ground?
* Write a recruitment ad for skills that are in short supply?

The ECCO Model

Richard — Tue, 03 May 2005 13:00:00 GMT

Summary:

== '''A Description of the ECCO Model''' ==

The ECCO modelling approach was originally developed by Jane King & Malcolm Slesser (Slesser & King 1993; Slesser et al, 1994, 1997). It provides a broad-brush sketch of the entire economy which allowed us not only to calculate the direct impacts of renewables on the electricity-generating sector, but also the synergies that may exist between renewable generation of electricity and other technologies and economic activities. ECCO has a number of characteristic features – physical, dynamic and holistic:

'''A) Physical'''

ECCO is primarily a physical account of the economy. Energy analysis theory, as defined in the proceedings of the IFIAS workshop of 1975 (IFIAS, 1975) underpins the model, and is explained in the primer which follows this article. It explicitly recognises the importance of the second law of thermodynamics in limiting the options available to the economy. According to this law, any transformation to a system incurs a net dissipation of energy and an overall increase in the entropy (which can be thought of as a measure of disorder) of the system. Within a system, the entropy of a local region can decrease if it is able to export the entropy increase elsewhere.

In industrialised economies, we generally order our built environment by exporting huge volumes of disorder to natural ecosystems, as dissipation of energy resources and as pollution. This behaviour was first formally described in these terms by Ilya Prigogine and colleagues as ‘open systems’ (Prigogine & Stengers, 1984). National economies such as the Republic of Ireland are very much open systems, interacting not only with natural environments, but with the global political environment through trading goods, services and financial flows. (Financial flows have no direct physical presence themselves but determine the direction in which physical effort is expended).

By describing the economy in such physical terms we get a direct handle on some of the key interactions with nature, such as rates of fossil fuel extraction, use of materials and emission of atmospheric pollutants, as well as many interactions that occur within the economy.

'''B) Dynamic'''

ECCO is a dynamic model. It does not describe the state of the economy at a single point in time, but the unfolding of events in the economy over a period of decades. It is suited for describing long-term economic patterns over such timescales, but less suited for explaining short-term fluctuations over periods of months or quarters. The computational techniques used to describe these dynamic relationships are classical system dynamics, as developed by Jay Forrester & colleagues in the 1960s at MIT
(Forrester 1968, 1971; Meadows et al, 1973).

The dynamic nature of the model is important in deeper ways than simply allowing us to describe key indicators as time series rather than snapshot values. A simple linear programming model can accomplish this. System dynamics, however, excels at describing complicated feedback interactions between many factors, and the ECCO model contains many feedback loops. These often lead to counterintuitive behaviour in the model, that is, behaviour that may seem to be unexpected at first glance, but, when its causes are traced back through the model structure, does make sense.

When we engage with the model in this way, we are encountering questions about the way our economy operates, and gaining insights that are qualitative as much as they are quantitative. Qualitative insight is often as important as the numerical time series data that the model generates.

'''C) Holistic'''

ECCO is a holistic model. Rather than covering one part of the economy in fine detail, the entire economy is described in coarse detail. Specific sectors may be developed to a greater level of detail than others (electricity generation and energy conservation, for example), but all sectors are represented at some level of detail. Because the model determines its own growth rate it is important that we know the demands and supplies associated with all parts of the economy in order to assess the overall growth potential.

A sector described at the lowest level of detail can be thought of as a placeholder. It is unlikely to do anything surprising during a simulation. When developing a model for specific purposes, we need to evaluate where we wish to apply detailed policy options, and from there, what level of detail is appropriate for the other major sectors. For example, if we were to develop a model with the aim of studying water usage, we would need a high level of detail in the industrial, domestic, agricultural and possibly electricity generation sectors. Services and transport sectors could be simpler, taking their cues from the ups and downs of the more detailed sectors. In some studies, the broad overview offered by ECCO has been usefully combined with more detailed static analysis (Crane & Foran, 2000).

'''Development of the ECCO Model during the Project'''

Feasta developed a pilot ECCO model of the Republic of Ireland in 2002 (See ''Before the Wells Run Dry'', Feasta, 2003, or visit http://www.feasta.org/documents/wells/contents.html?sitemap.html) which provides a complete simulation of the Irish economy at a broad-brush level. Business-as-usual policies were explored out to 2050, along with a range of moderate scenarios based around renewable electricity and energy efficiency technologies. Although the baseline conditions for these studies imposed an assumption about decreasing world’s fuel reserves, the assumptions made were very conservative, and the study did not address in detail the structural impact of such changes. Nonetheless, the existing model describes the interconnections between economic sectors, providing the groundwork for such a study.

The model on its own can only provide a very simple characterisation of how each sector might respond to increased fuel prices. By combining this analysis with the detailed consultations with representatives of each sector, we hope to get the best of both approaches; the detail and expertise of the sectoral studies, and the insight into the holistic interlinkages offered by ECCO. We expect to adopt an iterative approach to combining the two studies, offering preliminary ECCO findings as a source of input to the sectoral studies, and feeding the results of these back into subsequent model runs.

We expect that the model will become considerably more sophisticated as a result of being used for the project. Besides changing some of the assumptions built into the present version (such as the availability of imports of fossil energy and the flow of investment funds into Ireland) we also expect to be able to include more linkages between the sectors of the economy. This should make the model a better guide to the effects that changes in policies and external circumstances might have.

We also hope that the use of the model for the project will lead to its being used more generally in Ireland. A one-day training course in the use of the model was offered by Feasta and taught by David Crane during one of his visits to Ireland for the project.

Workshop Questions

Phoebebright — Fri, 29 Apr 2005 16:20:29 GMT

Summary:

__NOTOC__
=Questions to ask at workshops=

<b>This page if for question ideas. There may be duplication. Feel free to add more or to deduplicate!</b>

=Green Party Conference=
* What did you have for dinner yesterday and where did the food come from?
* What energy saving improvements have you made to your home in the last 10 years?
* Write a classified ad to appear in the local paper.
* Draw a picture that represents this scenario.

=More Ideas=
* How is health financed?

=June 1st Seminar=

==Business As Usual==

===Energy===
* The requirement for electricity is still increasing, though as the cost increases it is being used more efficiently. What is popular among private investors who want to invest in energy?

===Transportation===
* Prepare an advertisment for the local paper offering cheap trips to Dublin.
* Prepare an advertisment for the local paper offering a weeks holiday.
* What are the options for people travelling into Kilkenny from the out lying areas on a regular basis?

===Retail & Services===
* In 2005 the high street in Kilkenny had the following shops and services:
** Bank of Ireland
** SuperValue
** O'Reagans Pub
** Donavan's Newsagents
** AIB
** O'Riordan Accountancy
** Chinese Takeaway
** Methodist Church
** Healthfood Shop
** Centra
** Keegen's Shoes
** O2 Phones
** Thompsons Hardware
** Travel Agents
** Auctioneers
** Annies Pub
** Doctor's Surgery
* Who is still still there now and have their services changed?
* What has replaced those that are no longer there?

===Primary Production===
* How is the Farmer's Market doing?
**What are they selling?
**How often are they open?
**Who is buying there?
* In 2005 "The Agri-business sector continues to be Kilkenny's biggest industries". Is this still true?

===Manufacturing===
* In 2005 the following companies were manufacturing in Kilkenny:
** Glanbia
** Kilkenny Beer
* How have they fared over the last 10 years?
* What new manufacturing business have started?

===Construction===
* Write an ad for a new house, suitable for a younge family, highlighting it's main selling points.

----

==Enlightened Transition==

===Energy===
* Through successful efficiency drives and increasing prices, the growth in demand for electricity is leveling off. What is popular among private investors who want to invest in energy?
===Transportation===
* Prepare an advertisment for the local paper offering cheap trips to Dublin.
* Prepare an advertisment for the local paper offering a weeks holiday.
* What are the options for people travelling into Kilkenny from the out lying areas on a regular basis?

===Retail & Services===
* In 2005 the high street in Kilkenny had the following shops and services:
** Bank of Ireland
** SuperValue
** O'Reagans Pub
** Donavan's Newsagents
** AIB
** O'Riordan Accountancy
** Chinese Takeaway
** Methodist Church
** Healthfood Shop
** Centra
** Keegen's Shoes
** O2 Phones
** Thompsons Hardware
** Travel Agents
** Auctioneers
** Annies Pub
** Doctor's Surgery
* Who is still still there now and have their services changed?
* What has replaced those that are no longer there?

===Primary Production===
* How is the Farmer's Market doing?
**What are they selling?
**How often are they open?
**Who is buying there?
* In 2005 "The Agri-business sector continues to be Kilkenny's biggest industries". Is this still true?

===Manufacturing===
* In 2005 the following companies were manufacturing in Kilkenny:
** Glanbia
** Kilkenny Beer
* How have they fared over the last 10 years?
* What new manufacturing business have started?

===Construction===
* Write an ad for a new house, suitable for a younge family, highlighting it's main selling points.

----

==Localisation==

===Energy===
* Demand for electricity has dropped massively with the recession. What are the options for a small business processing milk for their energy supply?

===Transportation===
* Prepare an advertisment for the local paper offering cheap trips to Dublin.
* Prepare an advertisment for the local paper offering a weeks holiday.
* What are the options for people travelling into Kilkenny from the out lying areas on a regular basis?

===Retail & Services===
* In 2005 the high street in Kilkenny had the following shops and services:
** Bank of Ireland
** SuperValue
** O'Reagans Pub
** Donavan's Newsagents
** AIB
** O'Riordan Accountancy
** Chinese Takeaway
** Methodist Church
** Healthfood Shop
** Centra
** Keegen's Shoes
** O2 Phones
** Thompsons Hardware
** Travel Agents
** Auctioneers
** Annies Pub
** Doctor's Surgery
* Who is still still there now and have their services changed?
* What has replaced those that are no longer there?

===Primary Production===
* How is the Farmer's Market doing?
**What are they selling?
**How often are they open?
**Who is buying there?
* In 2005 "The Agri-business sector continues to be Kilkenny's biggest industries". Is this still true?

===Manufacturing===
* In 2005 the following companies were manufacturing in Kilkenny:
** Glanbia
** Kilkenny Beer
* How have they fared over the last 10 years?
* What new manufacturing business have started?

===Construction===
* Write an ad for a new house, suitable for a younge family, highlighting it's main selling points.

----

==Fair Shares==

===Energy===
* Demand for electricity has dropped as it becomes significantly more expensive and the town of Kilkenny had a number of blackouts. What are the options for the town if they want to prevent further blackouts?
===Transportation===
* Prepare an advertisment for the local paper offering cheap trips to Dublin.
* Prepare an advertisment for the local paper offering a weeks holiday.
* What are the options for people travelling into Kilkenny from the out lying areas on a regular basis?

===Retail & Services===
* In 2005 the high street in Kilkenny had the following shops and services:
** Bank of Ireland
** SuperValue
** O'Reagans Pub
** Donavan's Newsagents
** AIB
** O'Riordan Accountancy
** Chinese Takeaway
** Methodist Church
** Healthfood Shop
** Centra
** Keegen's Shoes
** O2 Phones
** Thompsons Hardware
** Travel Agents
** Auctioneers
** Annies Pub
** Doctor's Surgery
* Who is still still there now and have their services changed?
* What has replaced those that are no longer there?

===Primary Production===
* How is the Farmer's Market doing?
**What are they selling?
**How often are they open?
**Who is buying there?
* In 2005 "The Agri-business sector continues to be Kilkenny's biggest industries". Is this still true?

===Manufacturing===
* In 2005 the following companies were manufacturing in Kilkenny:
** Glanbia
** Kilkenny Beer
* How have they fared over the last 10 years?
* What new manufacturing business have started?

===Construction===
* Write an ad for a new house, suitable for a younge family, highlighting it's main selling points.

----

===For all Sectors===
1. How much energy per unit of production are you using in your sector in 2020 compared to 2005 and how have you achieved this?

2. What is the level of labour time and cost per unit of production and why?

=== For Energy===
3. What role will hydrogen play in your development (ensure covers role of energy sources)?

4. Write an advertisment for a home heating system using a non-fossil fuel source of energy.

===Transport===
3. What are the options for a company based in Dingle to move goods to a market in Dublin and what are the benefits of each?

4. What are the options for someone travelling from Dingle to Dublin and what are the benefits of each?

5. What are the options and prices for the following journeys:
- into Kilkenny to work or shop
- Kilkenny to Dublin
- Kilkenny to Dingle
- Kilkenny to London

5. Write an advertisment for a company offering next day delivery from Dingle to Dublin.

===Retail & services===
3. What are the shops/businesses on your local high street and which are doing well?

4. Write an advertisment for one or more of these businesses.

5. The high street of a major centre had the following shops and offices in 2005:
* Bank of Ireland
* Fish and Chips
* Newsagent
* Supervalue
* Pub
* Accountants
* AIB
* Furniture
...
Which have gone and what have they been replaced by?
Have the remaining changed the products or services they supply significantly?

===Primary Production===
3. It's Christmas and you are shopping in your local high street. Where were the following goods made and why? Fresh Tomatoes, Turkey, Computer, Sofa

4. Write an advertisment for what children most want this Christmas.

5. Kilkenny has a thriving Market. How often is it held, who is selling and whatt is sold there?

===Construction===
3. What are the main selling points of both residential and commercial and why?

4. Write a recruitment advertisment for a manager for a large construction company.

5. What building work is going on in Kilkenny?

6. How have construction methods changed?

===Manufacturing===
3. You are about to start manufacturing a new type of highly efficient insulating material. Where are you going to source your raw material and labour and where is your main market?

4. Write a recruitment advertisment for a production manager for this company.

5. Who has come and gone in the Kilkenny Business Parks in the last 10 years?

ScenarioAssumptions

Phoebebright — Tue, 26 Apr 2005 15:06:54 GMT

Summary:

==Assumptions==

We have ruled out certain events happening within the 50-year time horizon of the four scenarios, not because we think that some very real threats to our current way of life can be ignored, but purely to simplify matters. We have assumed, for example, that

* '''Climate change has no impact beyond an increasing frequency of floods and storms.''' If a major climate change occurs, such as the Gulf Stream ceasing to run, all bets are off.

* '''Disease or some other catastrophe''' does not wipe out a significant proportion of humanity.

* '''Powerful countries do not wage war''' over oil, water or other supplies leading to a worldwide destabilisation.

Our other major assumptions are:
* '''Ireland continues to work within the framework of the EU'''
* '''Net foreign direct investment in Ireland ceases after 2012.''' There would still be in inflow of capital but it would be matched by an outflow from Irish residents investing abroad. The effect of this assumption is to require that Ireland’s imports and exports balance each other and that a capital inflow does not make it possible to import more energy than would otherwise be the case.
* '''The world begins to take climate change more seriously''' and its actions to control emissions cause fossil energy prices to increase by 3% a year above trend in the post-Kyoto protocol period following 2012. Note that all energy prices are expressed in relation to wages. In other words, to eliminate inflation from the discussion, we assume that wages stay constant and that the price of energy and other goods and services move up and down in relation to them.
* '''Energy is required for all forms of production.''' If energy prices rise, we therefore assume that the price of every product rises by the extra cost of the energy used to make it. Of course, technological changes have the potential to reduce energy use and we will be asking panels of people drawn from all sections of Irish life to tell us what such changes might be. We will then use a computer model to calculate what effect the expected technological changes might have on the relative prices of each sector.

Finally, ''we have assumed the most positive outcomes for each scenario''. Each set of circumstances could lead to far worse results.

Education

Phoebebright — Mon, 25 Apr 2005 21:16:07 GMT

Summary:

==Education==

===Overview===

NOTES:
* Most of the increase in education spending per person will go to suppliers other than traditional schools and colleges. That is, traditional schools and colleges will hang onto their current market, but they will not expand to meet new demands for education services. Both internal and external pressures will make them slow to adopt new techniques based on cognitive science, so that competing providers will step in to fill the gap. Radical innovation in general tends to come from the fringe, as William Baumol and others have argued, and this is likely to be the case with education
* Parent-driven schooling will increase. As parents start to acquire knowledge derived from cognitive science, they will become more confident about giving input and making decisions concerning education strategies for their children. Parents will make more use of personal educational consultants and other non-school-based resources. Home schooling and traditional schooling will become less of a dichotomy and more of a continuum. http://www.techcentralstation.com/061504B.html
* Online learning is passing from the first phase of trying many different formats and ideas, to consolidating around a few standards that fit with the technology currently available. One of the leading software packages is Blackboard, partially owned by Microsoft, that has substantial (thousands) license fees. An alternative, that seems to offer equally good facilities, is Moodle. Here is a comparison: http://www.humboldt.edu/~jdv1/moodle/all.htm. There are a number of Irish organisations using Moodle: http://moodle.org/sites/index.php?country=IE

===[[Business As Usual]]===
* Home schooling becomes more common as internet schools are established. However, this remains limited as those parents who might prefer this option to public or private education are working and are not available to supervise their children.
* The number of third level centres remains high providing choice for students across the country. Courses are focused on service industry and the knowledge economy.
* Third level courses change only to incorporate new technology, the assumption that the future looks similar to the past.

===[[Enlightened Transition]]===
* Home schooling becomes more common as internet schools are established. However, this remains limited as those parents who might prefer this option to public or private education are working and are not available to supervise their children.
* Third level centres introduce studies of environmental and social sustainability into all their courses.
* A Centre of excellence in new energy technology in created with the aim of stimulating industry in Ireland.

===[[Fair Shares]]===
* Government funding is available for primary and secondary education only. Businesses sponsor employees to attend vocation training.
* Home schooling, both full-time and part-time becomes popular particularly at secondary level.
* A Centre of excellence in new energy technology in created with the aim of stimulating industry in Ireland.
* Most primary school children still attend local schools, many of which are private schools started by local people.

===[[Localisation]]===
* Home schooling, both full-time and part-time becomes popular particularly at secondary level.
* Most primary school children still attend local schools, many of which are private schools started by local people.
* Funding for education is very limited and much of the responsibility has been left to the parents to educate their children using resources available.
* Third level education as we know it is only available to the rich. Instead life long learning with students controlling their own education, using the internet, is a choice for most people.

Scenario Planning Research and References

Phoebebright — Mon, 25 Apr 2005 20:12:59 GMT

Summary:

=Scenario Planning Research and References=

==General==

==Education==

{| border=1 valign=top
|Link
|Variables
|Comments
|-
|[http://www.si.umich.edu/V2010/matrix.html U. of Michigan]
|<b>Competition</b>- the spectrum of challenges to the university's traditional role.<br />
<b>Digital Literacy</b> axis represents the degree to which information technology has transformed not only the essential set of skills required of the student, but also the very nature of knowledge creation and dissemination within the university.
|Despite being prepared in 1996, these US based scenarios are well written with provocative ideas. No consideration of energy.
|-
|[http://darkwing.uoregon.edu/~moursund/dave/year_2015_chapter.htm#A%20Scenairo%20Set%20in%20the%20Year%202015 Oregon University]
|Single scenario looking at experience of secondary schoolgirl in 2015 learning from home
|Good feel for what it might be like although again an old scenario, probably 1999. Does refere to energy.
|}

|http://ccs.mit.edu/21c/21CWP001.html MIT
|Two Scenarios for 21st Century Organizations:
Shifting Networks of Small Firms or All-Encompassing "Virtual Countries"?
|Dates back to 1995 but interesting discussion of future business models
|-

|[http://www.foresight.gov.uk/Previous_Rounds/Foresight_1999__2002/Built_Environment__Transport/scena.htm Forsight
|Single Scenario
|Future of construction industry in UK
|-

==Research==

http://gsociology.icaap.org/research.html - links to sites providing data on population

Workshop Agenda

Phoebebright — Fri, 22 Apr 2005 09:33:10 GMT

Summary:

=Workshop Agenda=

* Discussion and questions re briefing document (20 mins)
* Feedback on briefing document - too long, too short? (5 mins)

* Breakout into two groups. Each group looks what the future of cork city might be under one scenario for 20 minutes.
* Return to one group and present scenario (10 mins)
* Repeat of other two scenarios

* Review - What went well? How could it be better?
* What next?

Localisation Timeline

Phoebebright — Thu, 21 Apr 2005 20:17:40 GMT

Summary:

__NOTOC__
<div class="localisation">
==Timeline for Localisation==

===2005 - 2015===
* Worldwide depression develops due to the failure of the oil and gas producing countries to spend their windfall profits back into the global economy.
* Ireland hit more seriously than most other EU countries because of its higher dependence on imports of fossil fuels and on export markets for its products. Unemployment soars.
* Rapid collapse of activity in construction sector. Housing market plummets. Banks in difficulties as house buyers are unable to repay loans and find themselves deeply into negative equity.
* World food prices drop because the marginal buyers cannot afford to pay as much as previously. Farms quickly start to produce locally required foods as they can get better prices for them. Farmers’ markets open in every town.
* Internet access is unreliable as many servers are no longer available 24/7.
* Oil prices peak and then drop back to around $12 a barrel. Exploration and reserve development projects are cancelled. Shell mothballs its Athabasca tar sands project. Ireland finds itself with excess electricity generating capacity. No further wind farms are permitted to connect to the national grid.

===2016-2055===
* By 2020, another 2-year oil price peak has happened, only to see prices collapse back to the $12 a barrel level.
* The world economy is contracting, with firms closing and their equipment being scrapped during each downturn of the cycle. A limited amount of investment takes place during the recovery phase of the cycle but previous output levels are never achieved again. Each peak in global production, and in total energy use, is lower than the one ten or fifteen years previously.
* People do what they can to meet their own needs. Energy is expensive in their own terms because their earnings are low.
* A transition to low energy, labour-intensive ways of doing things takes place because money (and energy) for capital equipment is not available.
* Households will need to repair possessions as they will not have the money to dump worn or broken goods and buy new ones. Machines will have to last a lot longer. Cannibalisation for parts will be common.
* Travel will be limited because it will be expensive and people will have less need to travel.
* Local and regional governments, strapped for money to pay their workers, will begin to issue their own currencies as happened in Argentina.
* The Internet will be an important source of information about ways of adapting to the new conditions. E-commerce will be almost entirely local except for the supply of rare parts to maintain equipment
* Local sources of energy such as biomass will be developed where possible.
* Little used, the national electricity grid may prove too expensive to maintain in view of the high cost of repairs and the loss of 10% of the power passing through it.
* Local energy supplies will develop that use the local electricity distribution system but not the grid. Slowly a new grid will develop from a web of interconnecting mini-grids.
* Almost no new building will be carried on. What construction activity there is will be the adaptation of existing buildings for new uses, usually by the occupants and local builders, using recycled materials. Big houses will be shared.
* The massive drop in energy use will remove the pressure to act to prevent climate change.
* Localised famines will develop because of the difficulties with long-distance transport
* Transport by sea will become more important - settlement patterns more coastal. Irish Rail will run its trains on rapeseed oil. Tractors will run on biodiesal and (a very few) cars will be run on methane from digesters.
* The government will find it increasingly difficult to maintain control because it will be harder for people to travel. This will give an impetus towards a real decentralisation.
* Very little production will be based on 'new' resources. Most materials will be recycled. For example, what little steel production is carried on will be based on scrap metal.

===2055:===
* New things becoming possible with the growing sophistication of local economies.

[[Category:Localisation]]

</div>

Localisation Characteristics

Phoebebright — Thu, 21 Apr 2005 20:17:05 GMT

Summary:

__NOTOC__
<div class="localisation">
==Characteristics of Localisation==

===Government Policies===
* Investment in capital projects, incinerators, renewables, roads etc. cease through lack of funding
* Interest rates are increased to counter inflation caused by high fuel costs.

===Business===
* Property values at first boosted by a flight from equities, collapses in the face of increased interest rates and depressed economy. Construction ceases completely.
* Businesses which adapt to doing business with local suppliers and local customers survive. Those with the knowledge and skills to repair machinery are in particular demand.
* Everyone with a patch of land starts growing food for personal use and to barter for other services.
* Urban residents invade and squat well located agricultural land.
* Local currencies develop.
* Multinationals decentralise to try and adapt to changing supply and demand.

===Household===
* Foods we have become used to are rarely available: bananas, cheap frozen meals, coffee, tea!
* Maintaining a car and obtaining fuel for it becomes increasingly difficult, although periods of low oil prices help. We no longer travel on a whim, but plan our trips to make best use of fuel. Neighbours share trips to town for shopping.
* Most food is grown at home or supplied from local producers.
* People develop micro-businesses to supply goods or services that can be used to trade for essential needs.

[[Category:Localisation]]
</div>

Localisation Overview

Phoebebright — Thu, 21 Apr 2005 20:16:34 GMT

Summary:

__NOTOC__
==Overview of Enforced Localisation==
[[Image:local_200.jpg|right]]
The world is unprepared for the oil peak when it occurs in 2007. The European central bank panics and increases interest rates in order to try and control inflation. Instead of allowing the increases in energy prices to work their way through the markets, business is stifled by increasing costs on all sides.

The lack of demand for energy causes a drop in price and supply is once again able to meet demand, but as the economy picks up, the need for fossil fuel generated energy also increases and since there has been no investment in alternatives, this quickly leads to supply shortages and the cycle repeats itself.

By 2015, oil prices are low, but unemployment high and business people are reluctant to invest having been stung by the instability of the previous years. Those businesses that survive are focused on delivering locally sourced products to local markets.

References

Phoebebright — Thu, 21 Apr 2005 20:02:06 GMT

Summary:

=References=

References

* 1. Bakhtiari, A.M.S. "World Oil Production Capacity Model Suggests Output Peak by 2006-07."
Oil and Gas Journal,. April 26, 2004.
* 2. Simmons, M.R. Association for the Study of Peak Oil (ASPO) workshop. May 26, 2003.
* 3. Skrebowski, C. "Oil Field Mega Projects - 2004." Petroleum Review. January 2004.
* 4. Deffeyes, K.S. Hubbert’s Peak-The Impending World Oil Shortage. Princeton University Press. 2003.
* 5. Goodstein, D. Out of Gas – The End of the Age of Oil. W.W. Norton. 2004
* 6. Campbell, C.J. "Industry Urged to Watch for Regular Oil Production Peaks, Depletion Signals." Oil and Gas Journal July 14, 2003.
* 7. Drivers of the Energy Scene. World Energy Council. 2003.
* 8. Laherrere, J. Seminar Center of Energy Conversion. Zurich. May 7, 2003
* 9. DOE EIA. "Long Term World Oil Supply." April 18, 2000.
* 10. Jackson, P. et al. "Triple Witching Hour for Oil Arrives Early in 2004 – But, As Yet, No Real Witches." CERA Alert. April 7, 2004.
* 11. Davis, G. "Meeting Future Energy Needs." The Bridge. National Academies Press. Summer 2003.
* 12. Lynch, M.C. "Petroleum Resources Pessimism Debunked in Hubbert Model and Hubbert Modelers’ Assessment." Oil and Gas Journal, July 14, 2003.

==Data Links==
Many Graphs from BP Energy Charting Tool at http://www.bp.com/sectiongenericarticle.do?categoryId=2010516&contentId=2015065

Oil Prices
http://www.eia.doe.gov/emeu/international/prices.html#Graphs