Assumptions

We have ruled out certain events happening within the 50-year time horizon of the four scenarios, not because we think that some very real threats to our current way of life can be ignored, but purely to simplify matters. We have assumed, for example, that

• Climate change has no impact beyond an increasing frequency of floods and storms. If a major climate change occurs, such as the Gulf Stream ceasing to run, all bets are off.

• Disease or some other catastrophe does not wipe out a significant proportion of humanity.

• Powerful countries do not wage war over oil, water or other supplies leading to a worldwide destabilisation.

Our other major assumptions are:

• Ireland continues to work within the framework of the EU
• Net foreign direct investment in Ireland ceases after 2012. There would still be in inflow of capital but it would be matched by an outflow from Irish residents investing abroad. The effect of this assumption is to require that Ireland’s imports and exports balance each other and that a capital inflow does not make it possible to import more energy than would otherwise be the case.
• The world begins to take climate change more seriously and its actions to control emissions cause fossil energy prices to increase by 3% a year above trend in the post-Kyoto protocol period following 2012. Note that all energy prices are expressed in relation to wages. In other words, to eliminate inflation from the discussion, we assume that wages stay constant and that the price of energy and other goods and services move up and down in relation to them.
• Energy is required for all forms of production. If energy prices rise, we therefore assume that the price of every product rises by the extra cost of the energy used to make it. Of course, technological changes have the potential to reduce energy use and we will be asking panels of people drawn from all sections of Irish life to tell us what such changes might be. We will then use a computer model to calculate what effect the expected technological changes might have on the relative prices of each sector.

Finally, we have assumed the most positive outcomes for each scenario. Each set of circumstances could lead to far worse results.