Graphs
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Notes on Scenarios
The scenarios for this study have been translated into sets of input variables for the ECCO model. Not every aspect of the scenarios could be easily represented in the model, but we have made a pretty good match to the overall flavour of each.
We defined a core set of sustainability policies, implemented to varying degrees by all scenarios:
- adoption of renewable energy technologies (wave, wind) in place of fossil fuel burning plant
- investment in energy conservation in industry, services and domestic housing
- reduced air transport, replaced by boat
- replacement of fuel use in industry and services by electricity in industry and services. If the electricity is supplied by fossil firedgenerators, then we are simply introducing huge inefficiencies, but if combined with renewables, it allows for a greater move away from fossil fuels
- electric road transport; again, only sustainable when undertaken in tandem with renewable electricity
This list is incomplete, and doesn't cover all uses of fossil fuel. Future iterations of the scenario will try to bridge the gap.
Business As Usual does too little, too late.
Enlightened Transition implements the same policies, more vigorously, and earlier.
Fair Shares follows the same policies as enlightened, but under a tougher fossil fuel price regime.
Localisation attempts many of the sustainability policies, but is buffeted by a stop-start global economy. We represent this by fluctuating fuel prices - it is enough to severely destabilise the Irish economy in our simulation.
