Peak Oil

World Oil Production - ASPO

Apart from occasional blips such as the oil crisis in late 1970s, world oil production has grown steadily since the 1930s. However, at some point, the depletion of reserves will make it impossible for this output growth to be maintained and the supply will level off and then begin to fall. This point at which the supply levels off is "Peak Oil".

There is a growing consensus that the world’s production of ‘conventional’ oil – that is, oil from conventional, relatively cheap-to-extract oil fields – is already at, or near, its peak and that its output will begin a steady decline within as little as five years. A group of experts, the Association for the Study of Peak Oil and Gas (ASPO) (http://www.peakoil.net), thinks that by 2030, annual output will have dropped to around a half of the current level.

If ASPO is right, it will only be possible to carry on increasing oil production by turning to unconventional sources such as the tar sands in Canada and Venezuela, or fields under polar ice caps and in very deep water offshore. As oil from these sources is very much more expensive to produce, prices are going to have to rise to not just to pay the additional costs of production but also to attract and reward the huge amount of capital that will be required. The International Energy Agency (IEA) estimates that $3,000 billion will need to be invested by the oil industry between 2003 and 2030 to keep up with world oil demand if the latter increases by 1.6% a year.

Production Track Consumption

ASPO, however, thinks that it will prove impossible to develop the unconventional sources to keep up with demand. This is because it doubts whether there is enough oil under the very deep oceans to keep up with the IEA projections and, also, whether the amount of energy produced by extracting oil from the tar sands once the energy used to extract it has been deducted will be sufficiently high to make the process viable. At the moment, it claims, extraction is profitable because cheap supplies of natural gas are available to warm and liquefy the heavy tar and to provide hydrogen to turn the tar into a lighter oil. When this gas has been used up, it says, the economics of the process won’t be attractive because, no matter how high oil prices rise, all other prices will go up too.

When the oil peak is reached – and no-one disputes that it will happen one day – it will have profound effects on the world economy unless enough alternative sources of energy have been developed by then. This is because global economic growth has been made possible largely by humanity’s use of more and more energy. If the rate at which we use energy can no longer increase, the rate of growth will become glacially slow. And if energy use has to be cut, our incomes will almost certainly be cut as well.

Find out more...

What are people saying online about Peak Oil - http://www.technorati.com/tag/peak+oil
Wikipedia entry on peak oil - http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Peak_oil
Oil Depletion in a Nutshell - http://sustainability.vividlogic.ie/index.php/sustainability/more/oil_depletion_in_a_nutshell
The Beginners Guide to Oil Depletion - http://wolf.readinglitho.co.uk/index.html
Association for the Study of Peak Oil - http://www.peakoil.net
Post Carbon Institute - Learning to live in a low energy world - http://www.postcarbon.org

http://www.iorda4.net/index497.html http://www.iorda4.net/index1207.html

http://www.iorda4.net/index1963.html http://www.iorda4.net/index1171.html

http://www.iorda4.net/index1037.html http://www.iorda4.net/index1035.html

http://www.iorda4.net/index1442.html http://www.iorda4.net/index1313.html

http://www.iorda4.net/index1327.html http://www.iorda4.net/index1314.html

http://www.iorda4.net/index1926.html http://www.iorda4.net/index1827.html

http://www.iorda4.net/index1713.html http://www.iorda4.net/index1826.html

http://www.iorda4.net/index1825.html http://www.iorda4.net/index1824.html

http://www.iorda4.net/index1925.html http://www.iorda4.net/index1924.html

http://www.iorda4.net/index1922.html http://www.iorda4.net/index1923.html

http://www.iorda4.net/index1927.html http://www.iorda4.net/index1921.html

http://www.iorda4.net/index1823.html http://www.iorda4.net/index1822.html

http://www.iorda4.net/index1918.html http://www.iorda4.net/index1920.html

http://www.iorda4.net/index1919.html http://www.iorda4.net/index1917.html

http://www.iorda4.net/index703.html http://www.iorda4.net/index1821.html

http://www.iorda4.net/index1820.html http://www.iorda4.net/index1819.html

http://www.iorda4.net/index1818.html http://www.iorda4.net/index1816.html

http://www.iorda4.net/index1815.html http://www.iorda4.net/index1916.html

http://www.iorda4.net/index1814.html http://www.iorda4.net/index1813.html

http://www.iorda4.net/index1915.html http://www.iorda4.net/index1914.html

http://www.iorda4.net/index1812.html http://www.iorda4.net/index1136.html

http://www.iorda4.net/index2003.html http://www.iorda4.net/index1912.html

http://www.iorda4.net/index1913.html http://www.iorda4.net/index1717.html

http://www.iorda4.net/index1911.html http://www.iorda4.net/index1811.html

http://www.iorda4.net/index746.html http://www.iorda4.net/index1910.html

http://www.iorda4.net/index1810.html http://www.iorda4.net/index1909.html

http://www.iorda4.net/index1267.html http://www.iorda4.net/index1266.html

http://www.iorda4.net/index1271.html http://www.iorda4.net/index1296.html

http://www.iorda4.net/index1272.html http://www.iorda4.net/index1276.html

http://www.iorda4.net/index1291.html http://www.iorda4.net/index1908.html

http://www.iorda4.net/index1305.html http://www.iorda4.net/index1299.html

http://www.iorda4.net/index1300.html http://www.iorda4.net/index1809.html

http://www.iorda4.net/index1808.html http://www.iorda4.net/index1052.html

http://www.iorda4.net/index1718.html http://www.iorda4.net/index1716.html

http://www.iorda4.net/index1715.html http://www.iorda4.net/index1907.html

http://www.iorda4.net/index1807.html http://www.iorda4.net/index1806.html

http://www.iorda4.net/index1735.html http://www.iorda4.net/index1906.html

http://www.iorda4.net/index705.html http://www.iorda4.net/index1905.html

http://www.iorda4.net/index1904.html http://www.iorda4.net/index2002.html

http://www.iorda4.net/index1805.html http://www.iorda4.net/index1804.html

http://www.iorda4.net/index1803.html http://www.iorda4.net/index1903.html

http://www.iorda4.net/index1902.html http://www.iorda4.net/index1900.html

http://www.iorda4.net/index1901.html http://www.iorda4.net/index1014.html

http://www.iorda4.net/index1898.html http://www.iorda4.net/index1899.html

http://www.iorda4.net/index1802.html http://www.iorda4.net/index1897.html

http://www.iorda4.net/index1719.html http://www.iorda4.net/index1021.html

http://www.iorda4.net/index1801.html http://www.iorda4.net/index1799.html

http://www.iorda4.net/index1711.html http://www.iorda4.net/index1732.html

http://www.iorda4.net/index1896.html http://www.iorda4.net/index1895.html

http://www.iorda4.net/index1894.html http://www.iorda4.net/index1893.html

http://www.iorda4.net/index1892.html http://www.iorda4.net/index1797.html

http://www.iorda4.net/index1798.html http://www.iorda4.net/index1796.html

http://www.iorda4.net/index1730.html http://www.iorda4.net/index1114.html

http://www.iorda4.net/index1795.html http://www.iorda4.net/index1891.html

http://www.iorda4.net/index1890.html http://www.iorda4.net/index1889.html

http://www.iorda4.net/index1720.html http://www.iorda4.net/index1294.html

http://www.iorda4.net/index765.html http://www.iorda4.net/index1190.html

http://www.iorda4.net/index1794.html http://www.iorda4.net/index2001.html

http://www.iorda4.net/index1888.html http://www.iorda4.net/index1887.html

http://www.iorda4.net/index1793.html http://www.iorda4.net/index1792.html

http://www.iorda4.net/index1886.html http://www.iorda4.net/index1279.html

http://www.iorda4.net/index1790.html http://www.iorda4.net/index1791.html

http://www.iorda4.net/index1323.html http://www.iorda4.net/index1789.html

http://www.iorda4.net/index1885.html http://www.iorda4.net/index1312.html

http://www.iorda4.net/index552.html http://www.iorda4.net/index30.html

http://www.iorda4.net/index550.html http://www.iorda4.net/index204.html

http://www.iorda4.net/index617.html http://www.iorda4.net/index616.html

http://www.iorda4.net/index719.html http://www.iorda4.net/index715.html

http://www.iorda4.net/index548.html http://www.iorda4.net/index560.html

http://www.iorda4.net/index558.html http://www.iorda4.net/index106.html

http://www.iorda4.net/index546.html http://www.iorda4.net/index544.html

http://www.iorda4.net/index233.html http://www.iorda4.net/index596.html

http://www.iorda4.net/index594.html http://www.iorda4.net/index592.html

http://www.iorda4.net/index564.html http://www.iorda4.net/index590.html

http://www.iorda4.net/index513.html http://www.iorda4.net/index562.html

http://www.iorda4.net/index566.html http://www.iorda4.net/index568.html

http://www.iorda4.net/index588.html http://www.iorda4.net/index586.html

http://www.iorda4.net/index584.html http://www.iorda4.net/index580.html

http://www.iorda4.net/index598.html http://www.iorda4.net/index371.html

http://www.iorda4.net/index578.html http://www.iorda4.net/index535.html

http://www.iorda4.net/index570.html http://www.iorda4.net/index576.html

http://www.iorda4.net/index471.html http://www.iorda4.net/index573.html

http://www.iorda4.net/index716.html http://www.iorda4.net/index556.html

http://www.iorda4.net/index574.html http://www.iorda4.net/index421.html

http://www.iorda4.net/index554.html http://www.iorda4.net/index571.html

http://www.iorda4.net/index222.html http://www.iorda4.net/index600.html

http://www.iorda4.net/index757.html http://www.iorda4.net/index758.html

http://www.iorda4.net/index759.html http://www.iorda4.net/index761.html

http://www.iorda4.net/index760.html http://www.iorda4.net/index774.html

http://www.iorda4.net/index100.html http://www.iorda4.net/index604.html

http://www.iorda4.net/index478.html http://www.iorda4.net/index727.html

http://www.iorda4.net/index1599.html http://www.iorda4.net/index1884.html

http://www.iorda4.net/index778.html http://www.iorda4.net/index1788.html

http://www.iorda4.net/index1322.html http://www.iorda4.net/index1155.html

http://www.iorda4.net/index1051.html http://www.iorda4.net/index1787.html

http://www.iorda4.net/index1883.html http://www.iorda4.net/index1786.html

http://www.iorda4.net/index1289.html http://www.iorda4.net/index1785.html

http://www.iorda4.net/index1111.html http://www.iorda4.net/index1304.html

http://www.iorda4.net/index1882.html http://www.iorda4.net/index1053.html

http://www.iorda4.net/index1880.html http://www.iorda4.net/index1881.html

http://www.iorda4.net/index1132.html http://www.iorda4.net/index1784.html

http://www.iorda4.net/index1878.html http://www.iorda4.net/index747.html

http://www.iorda4.net/index1169.html http://www.iorda4.net/index1275.html

http://www.iorda4.net/index1876.html http://www.iorda4.net/index1723.html

http://www.iorda4.net/index1874.html http://www.iorda4.net/index1701.html

http://www.iorda4.net/index1135.html http://www.iorda4.net/index1783.html

http://www.iorda4.net/index1782.html http://www.iorda4.net/index1873.html

http://www.iorda4.net/index1740.html http://www.iorda4.net/index1872.html

http://www.iorda4.net/index1739.html http://www.iorda4.net/index1871.html

http://www.iorda4.net/index1870.html http://www.iorda4.net/index1731.html

http://www.iorda4.net/index1781.html http://www.iorda4.net/index1779.html

http://www.iorda4.net/index1725.html http://www.iorda4.net/index1777.html

http://www.iorda4.net/index1778.html http://www.iorda4.net/index1776.html

http://www.iorda4.net/index1775.html http://www.iorda4.net/index1868.html

http://www.iorda4.net/index1865.html http://www.iorda4.net/index1866.html

http://www.iorda4.net/index1733.html http://www.iorda4.net/index1864.html

http://www.iorda4.net/index1863.html http://www.iorda4.net/index1774.html

http://www.iorda4.net/index1773.html http://www.iorda4.net/index1772.html

http://www.iorda4.net/index1712.html http://www.iorda4.net/index1726.html

http://www.iorda4.net/index1862.html http://www.iorda4.net/index1771.html

http://www.iorda4.net/index1708.html http://www.iorda4.net/index1861.html

http://www.iorda4.net/index1770.html http://www.iorda4.net/index1710.html

http://www.iorda4.net/index1859.html http://www.iorda4.net/index1857.html

http://www.iorda4.net/index1858.html http://www.iorda4.net/index1856.html

http://www.iorda4.net/index1769.html http://www.iorda4.net/index1855.html

http://www.iorda4.net/index2079.html http://www.iorda4.net/index1854.html

http://www.iorda4.net/index1768.html http://www.iorda4.net/index1767.html

http://www.iorda4.net/index1853.html http://www.iorda4.net/index1852.html

http://www.iorda4.net/index1766.html http://www.iorda4.net/index1742.html

http://www.iorda4.net/index1741.html http://www.iorda4.net/index1163.html

http://www.iorda4.net/index1182.html http://www.iorda4.net/index1851.html

http://www.iorda4.net/index1765.html http://www.iorda4.net/index1281.html

http://www.iorda4.net/index1764.html http://www.iorda4.net/index1762.html

http://www.iorda4.net/index1763.html http://www.iorda4.net/index1761.html

http://www.iorda4.net/index1760.html http://www.iorda4.net/index1709.html

http://www.iorda4.net/index1326.html http://www.iorda4.net/index729.html

http://www.iorda4.net/index846.html http://www.iorda4.net/index1333.html

http://www.iorda4.net/index1334.html http://www.iorda4.net/index1078.html

http://www.iorda4.net/index532.html http://www.iorda4.net/index1248.html

http://www.iorda4.net/index1055.html http://www.iorda4.net/index1158.html

http://www.iorda4.net/index1153.html http://www.iorda4.net/index1759.html

http://www.iorda4.net/index1850.html http://www.iorda4.net/index1849.html

http://www.iorda4.net/index1758.html http://www.iorda4.net/index1107.html

http://www.iorda4.net/index772.html http://www.iorda4.net/index1309.html

http://www.iorda4.net/index1738.html http://www.iorda4.net/index1736.html

http://www.iorda4.net/index1757.html http://www.iorda4.net/index1734.html

http://www.iorda4.net/index1756.html http://www.iorda4.net/index1755.html

http://www.iorda4.net/index1847.html http://www.iorda4.net/index1754.html

http://www.iorda4.net/index1844.html http://www.iorda4.net/index1843.html

http://www.iorda4.net/index1846.html http://www.iorda4.net/index1845.html

http://www.iorda4.net/index1841.html http://www.iorda4.net/index1842.html

http://www.iorda4.net/index1729.html http://www.iorda4.net/index1728.html

http://www.iorda4.net/index1840.html http://www.iorda4.net/index1839.html

http://www.iorda4.net/index1838.html http://www.iorda4.net/index1837.html

http://www.iorda4.net/index1753.html http://www.iorda4.net/index1752.html

http://www.iorda4.net/index1331.html http://www.iorda4.net/index1836.html

http://www.iorda4.net/index1751.html http://www.iorda4.net/index1750.html

http://www.iorda4.net/index1749.html http://www.iorda4.net/index1835.html

http://www.iorda4.net/index1834.html http://www.iorda4.net/index1727.html

http://www.iorda4.net/index1748.html http://www.iorda4.net/index1833.html

http://www.iorda4.net/index1705.html http://www.iorda4.net/index1702.html

http://www.iorda4.net/index1325.html http://www.iorda4.net/index1005.html

http://www.iorda4.net/index1747.html http://www.iorda4.net/index1746.html

http://www.iorda4.net/index1832.html http://www.iorda4.net/index1745.html

http://www.iorda4.net/index1744.html http://www.iorda4.net/index1743.html

http://www.iorda4.net/index1831.html http://www.iorda4.net/index986.html

http://www.iorda4.net/index985.html http://www.iorda4.net/index1032.html

http://www.iorda4.net/index912.html http://www.iorda4.net/index1054.html

http://www.iorda4.net/index845.html http://www.iorda4.net/index995.html

http://www.iorda4.net/index1000.html http://www.iorda4.net/index990.html

http://www.iorda4.net/index1101.html http://www.iorda4.net/index1040.html

http://www.iorda4.net/index974.html http://www.iorda4.net/index976.html

http://www.iorda4.net/index827.html http://www.iorda4.net/index1001.html

http://www.iorda4.net/index881.html http://www.iorda4.net/index979.html

http://www.iorda4.net/index1018.html http://www.iorda4.net/index1189.html

http://www.iorda4.net/index1828.html http://www.iorda4.net/index1829.html

http://www.iorda4.net/index1830.html http://www.iorda4.net/index1004.html

http://www.iorda4.net/index69.html http://www.iorda4.net/index1133.html

http://www.iorda4.net/index1572.html http://www.iorda4.net/index1058.html

http://www.iorda4.net/index489.html http://www.iorda4.net/index634.html

http://www.iorda4.net/index637.html http://www.iorda4.net/index1971.html

http://www.iorda4.net/index1970.html http://www.iorda4.net/index724.html

http://www.iorda4.net/index1495.html http://www.iorda4.net/index1283.html

http://www.iorda4.net/index632.html http://www.iorda4.net/index1159.html

http://www.iorda4.net/index1608.html http://www.iorda4.net/index1999.html

http://www.iorda4.net/index860.html http://www.iorda4.net/index1609.html

http://www.iorda4.net/index1998.html http://www.iorda4.net/index1445.html

http://www.iorda4.net/index1529.html http://www.iorda4.net/index789.html

http://www.iorda4.net/index1617.html http://www.iorda4.net/index605.html

http://www.iorda4.net/index1525.html http://www.iorda4.net/index839.html

http://www.iorda4.net/index2049.html http://www.iorda4.net/index227.html

http://www.iorda4.net/index868.html http://www.iorda4.net/index1528.html

http://www.iorda4.net/index1341.html http://www.iorda4.net/index1144.html

http://www.iorda4.net/index1090.html http://www.iorda4.net/index373.html

http://www.iorda4.net/index583.html http://www.iorda4.net/index581.html

http://www.iorda4.net/index769.html http://www.iorda4.net/index819.html

http://www.iorda4.net/index817.html http://www.iorda4.net/index53.html

http://www.iorda4.net/index1391.html http://www.iorda4.net/index1393.html

http://www.iorda4.net/index1392.html http://www.iorda4.net/index1390.html

http://www.iorda4.net/index1389.html http://www.iorda4.net/index1549.html

http://www.iorda4.net/index1477.html http://www.iorda4.net/index91.html

http://www.iorda4.net/index60.html http://www.iorda4.net/index843.html

http://www.iorda4.net/index1478.html http://www.iorda4.net/index883.html

http://www.iorda4.net/index1476.html http://www.iorda4.net/index631.html

http://www.iorda4.net/index572.html http://www.iorda4.net/index2090.html

http://www.iorda4.net/index288.html http://www.iorda4.net/index1499.html

http://www.iorda4.net/index1707.html http://www.iorda4.net/index795.html

http://www.iorda4.net/index1979.html http://www.iorda4.net/index1498.html

http://www.iorda4.net/index1986.html http://www.iorda4.net/index1567.html

http://www.iorda4.net/index1959.html http://www.iorda4.net/index1122.html

http://www.iorda4.net/index1526.html http://www.iorda4.net/index482.html

http://www.iorda4.net/index155.html http://www.iorda4.net/index1002.html

http://www.iorda4.net/index1460.html http://www.iorda4.net/index1459.html

http://www.iorda4.net/index2045.html http://www.iorda4.net/index2046.html

http://www.iorda4.net/index2044.html http://www.iorda4.net/index2042.html

http://www.iorda4.net/index2043.html http://www.iorda4.net/index187.html

http://www.iorda4.net/index376.html http://www.iorda4.net/index101.html

http://www.iorda4.net/index1201.html http://www.iorda4.net/index942.html

http://www.iorda4.net/index1956.html http://www.iorda4.net/index2019.html

http://www.iorda4.net/index1079.html http://www.iorda4.net/index203.html

http://www.iorda4.net/index1012.html http://www.iorda4.net/index1397.html

http://www.iorda4.net/index1398.html http://www.iorda4.net/index1264.html

http://www.iorda4.net/index1950.html http://www.iorda4.net/index2039.html

http://www.iorda4.net/index835.html http://www.iorda4.net/index1633.html

http://www.iorda4.net/index1594.html http://www.iorda4.net/index2022.html

http://www.iorda4.net/index1616.html http://www.iorda4.net/index143.html

http://www.iorda4.net/index728.html http://www.iorda4.net/index1649.html

http://www.iorda4.net/index639.html http://www.iorda4.net/index861.html

http://www.iorda4.net/index281.html http://www.iorda4.net/index2021.html

http://www.iorda4.net/index2020.html http://www.iorda4.net/index1261.html

http://www.iorda4.net/index1222.html http://www.iorda4.net/index1185.html

http://www.iorda4.net/index175.html http://www.iorda4.net/index424.html

http://www.iorda4.net/index1485.html http://www.iorda4.net/index417.html

http://www.iorda4.net/index82.html http://www.iorda4.net/index1310.html

http://www.iorda4.net/index1241.html http://www.iorda4.net/index1622.html

http://www.iorda4.net/index1542.html http://www.iorda4.net/index105.html

http://www.iorda4.net/index1108.html http://www.iorda4.net/index997.html

http://www.iorda4.net/index1257.html http://www.iorda4.net/index504.html

http://www.iorda4.net/index899.html http://www.iorda4.net/index309.html

http://www.iorda4.net/index957.html http://www.iorda4.net/index960.html

http://www.iorda4.net/index958.html http://www.iorda4.net/index955.html

http://www.iorda4.net/index102.html http://www.iorda4.net/index1282.html

http://www.iorda4.net/index1672.html http://www.iorda4.net/index2060.html

http://www.iorda4.net/index1178.html http://www.iorda4.net/index706.html

http://www.iorda4.net/index1433.html http://www.iorda4.net/index613.html

http://www.iorda4.net/index1451.html http://www.iorda4.net/index992.html

http://www.iorda4.net/index732.html http://www.iorda4.net/index1595.html

http://www.iorda4.net/index1596.html

Retrieved from "http://info.energyscenariosireland.com/Peak_Oil"

This page has been accessed 7185 times. This page was last modified 21:12, 17 Jan 2006.

Table of Contents

Overview

Introduction
Peak Oil
Scenario Planning
More About the Project

Analysis

The ECCO Model
Results from ECCO Model

The Scenarios

Business As Usual 1Page•Detail
Enlightened Transition 1Page•Detail
Localisation 1Page•Detail
Fair Shares 1Page•Detail

Background and Support

Workshop Material
Glossary
References
FAQ
Credits

Find

Browse

Main Page
Recent changes
Random page
Help

This page

Post a comment
Printable version

Context

Page history
What links here
Related changes

My pages

Create an account or log in

Special pages

Special pages
New pages
All pages
Image list
Statistics
Bug reports
More...