This project started from the idea that over the next 50 years the price of energy will rise very significantly in relation to the price of labour as a result of both oil and gas depletion and restrictions on the release of greenhouse gases in order to slow climate change. In the 1920s, the price of a litre of petrol was ten times its price in 1995 in terms of the length of time the average worker had to work to buy it. (See Folke Gunther’s article in Feasta Review No. 1 http://www.feasta.org/documents/feastareview/guenther.htm) It is not inconceivable that energy prices will return to that level.
There are, of course, an infinite number of ways in which Ireland’s energy future might work out but we have tried to set the boundaries within which that future has to lie by developing the four scenarios explained elsewhere on this site. We will be asking people drawn from the major sectors of Irish life consumers, energy suppliers, manufacturers, the construction industry, transport companies, farmers, etc how they would wish to change the way they operated if each of the scenarios came about. For example, it might take someone six months at present to earn enough to buy a new car. Would he or she still want to have one in future if a scenario indicated that it might take them five years to get enough money together because of the huge jump in the cost of the energy used to make the vehicle? And how would that decision affect where they wanted to live in relation to shops, work and schools? Would they heat their houses to the same temperature and, if not, would that affect the weight of the clothes they chose to wear?
The changes in consumer demand would have massive knock-on effects on what was manufactured, as well as how (production techniques might become smaller-scale and more labour-intensive) and where (transport costs would rise sharply). Goods would be made to last, and to be easy to repair. Nothing embodying a significant amount of energy would ever be dumped or incinerated it would all be recycled instead. (After all, we don’t dump gold now, do we?). Agricultural techniques would change. Many more horses might be used and no-till systems would become more popular. The higher cost of fertilizers might mean that the price differential between organic and inorganic food disappeared. There might be very little new construction, and what there was would be done with low embodied-energy materials such as local stone and wood. Most building activity might be improvements and conversion work.
The results of our discussions will be run through Feasta’s ECCO model of energy flows (rather than money flows) in the Irish economy to see if they can be made to be consistent with the amount of energy Ireland might be able to afford. If not, a different set of adjustments would be required and we will go back to each sector to see what they might be. In effect, the model enables one to assess what it might be possible to accomplish in Ireland if the factor limiting the level of activity here is the supply of energy rather than the availability of cash.
The main aim of the project is to get policymakers from the various sectors thinking about how their industries are going to have to change in response to energy shortages and the climate crisis. Perhaps the price of energy won’t return to 1920s levels but, even if it doesn’t, every sector in Ireland is still going to have to make the same types of change although to a lesser extent.
Feasta’s partners in the project are Larry Staudt and Ray Byrne from the Centre for Renewable Energy at Dundalk Institute of Technology, and David Crane of Sunwheel Technologies in England. Dave and Larry worked together two years ago to develop the ECCO model Comhar and Sustainable Northern Ireland are also working with us. Phoebe Bright from Vivid Logic is developing the scenarios and making this information available online.
The project will end with a conference in Dublin on Wednesday, October 12th at which the results will be presented and discussed. The conference will be open to the public and is part of the Autumn 2005 Convergence festival. After the conference we will be producing a written report.
