Localisation in 2015

Overview of Enforced Localisation

The world is unprepared for the oil peak when it occurs in 2007. The European central bank panics and increases interest rates in order to try and control inflation. Instead of allowing the increases in energy prices to work their way through the markets, business is stifled by increasing costs on all sides.

The lack of demand for energy causes a drop in price and supply is once again able to meet demand, but as the economy picks up, the need for fossil fuel generated energy also increases and since there has been no investment in alternatives, this quickly leads to supply shortages and the cycle repeats itself.

By 2015, oil prices are low, but unemployment high and business people are reluctant to invest having been stung by the instability of the previous years. Those businesses that survive are focused on delivering locally sourced products to local markets.

Localisation Summary

Enlarge
The economy contracts and collapses with the rising oil prices. As oil prices rise economic growth declines resulting in the demand for oil getting less, which may temporarily reduce the price of oil causing an initial economic recovery but only to collapse completely again. The economy gets a real battering under the localisation scenario, from which it can't recover.


Key Localisation Facts in 2015

Government Policies

  • Investment in capital projects ceases through lack of funding
  • Interest rates increase to counter inflation caused by high fuel costs
  • Government is destabilised due to restless impoverished citizens

Economy

  • Energy prices are destabilised
  • Unemployment is widespread

Business

  • Multinationals decentralise to try and adapt to changing supply and demand
  • Construction ceases completely due to prohibitive energy costs and lack of buyers' market
  • Business with local suppliers & customers thrives; repair services also in demand

Households

  • People start growing food for personal use
  • Local currencies develop
  • Debt crisis as home-owners caught in negative equity Culture

Culture

What are we eating?

  • Local farm & home grown produce
  • Nuts, berries & roots
  • Tinned goods stockpiled by survivalists
  • Atlantic seaweed

What are we watching?

  • Ground Force are now converting gardens for vegetable growing
  • Starship MicroEnterprise
  • Jim'll Fix It

Most popular Websites

  • www.growyourownfood.com
  • www.creditunions.ie
  • www.fas.ie

What are we selling

  • Working horse for sale. One owner, in good condition with new set of steel shoes. Doesn't eat much and high emissions will help grow your cabages! Loves to work.
  • Best wheelbarrows in town for sale in exchange for cars in sound condition.
  • Mobile Super Shop Bank - Post Office - Library See our new timetable at http://www.shopcometou.cork
  • Bouncy Castles - Closing Down Sale - Everything Must Go
  • Veg growing classes start next Wednesday at 7pm in the Community Centre.
  • We own an old landfill. Do you want what’s in it?

Headlines

  • Irish draft horse prices now higher than those of new tractors - Horse make a return to the farm.
  • Survey reveals Irish now slimmer and fitter than 2005 - We are living healthier lives - better food and more excercise.
  • Liffy hand-dredged for bikes and prams - One of the big differences between 2015 and 1805 is that we have Junk. All kinds of junk is being given a new lease of life.
  • Castlecomer coal mine reopened - Ireland's limited coal mines are being reopened.
  • Cork warlords declare independant state - Law and order has broken down in some areas.
  • Riots at allotments over cabbage - Food supplies can be very limited at the end of the winter and in some areas there are fights over remaining food supplies.
  • Foreign correspondants sacked as Ireland looses interest in outside world - We are foced to become virtually self-sufficient for our essential needs and therefore have little interest is what is happening out there.
  • Bicycle factory fueld by biomass and wind opens in Westport - Many businesses are gone bust, but many more, usually small scale and local, are opening.

Retrieved from "http://info.energyscenariosireland.com/Localisation_1Page"

This page has been accessed 1705 times. This page was last modified 09:52, 20 Jul 2005.

 





Table of Contents

Overview

Introduction
Peak Oil
Scenario Planning
More About the Project

Analysis

The ECCO Model
Results from ECCO Model

The Scenarios

Business As Usual 1PageDetail
Enlightened Transition 1PageDetail
Localisation 1PageDetail
Fair Shares 1PageDetail

Background and Support

Workshop Material
Glossary
References
FAQ
Credits
Find
Browse
Main Page
Recent changes
Random page
Help
This page
Post a comment
Printable version
Context
Page history
What links here
Related changes
My pages
Create an account or log in
Special pages
Special pages
New pages
All pages
Image list
Statistics
Bug reports
More...