Timeline for Fair Shares

2005 - 2015

• The cartel agrees a $50 per barrel price for oil with the producers, and prices for gas and coal based on their historic relationship with the price of oil. It is also agreed that these prices will rise by 3% a year, the rate at which the output of all three fuels is to be reduced, so that the producers are guaranteed a constant income into the future.

• Emissions permits are distributed worldwide for the first time, giving each person on the planet the right to emit the amount of carbon dioxide released by one tonne of oil or the equivalent in coal or gas a year. Recipients sell them immediately and receive over $200, making the effective price of oil $80 a barrel, since each tonne of oil is equivalent to 7.2 barrels.

• Electricity interconnector to Wales completed, allowing rapid increase in the number of windfarms connected to the grid as surplus power can now be exported and power from Britain brought in when wind in Ireland drops.

• Massive increase in demand for consumer goods and foodstuffs from the poorer parts of the world, where the sale of emissions permits has effectively doubled the incomes of the poorest people.

• Farmers benefit from higher food prices but cut back on fertilizer applications due to high cost.

• Inflation tops 10% as higher energy costs work their way through the European economy. Salaries and wages fail to keep up although demand for labour is high.

• House prices tend to fall as people have less money left over to pay rent or a mortgage once their basic needs are met. Energy rating, introduced in 2006, means that the price of big houses and poorly insulated ones fall by above-average amounts. So do the prices of houses far from employment centres and those of holiday homes.

• Activity in the house construction sector declines. Many small companies are established to assess exactly where a house is wasting energy and to undertake remedial measures.

• Car sales fall and the market moves to lower engine sizes.

• Home generated electrcicity can now be sold back to the grid but is taxed as income.

• Community buying systems develop, based on the internet, for goods that have to be imported.

• Car sharing schemes become the norm.

2016 - 2035

Energy prices still rising at 6% a year relative to incomes.

Number of cars on roads continues to fall. Bus and train services become more frequent. Cycling returning to levels last seen in the 1950s.

Network of regional factories set up to convert forest thinnings and other biomass into ethanol for use in cars. The yield is boosted by adding hydrogen made using surplus wind electricity.

Tidal lagoon developed in Galway Bay to feed electricity into the grid. Massive developments in offshore windfarms.

Horse breeders find that it is more profitable to breed heavy horses for use in city deliveries and on farms than to produce show-jumpers and racers.

Many communities set up ESCOs – energy supply companies, to provide themselves with heat, light, cooling and vehicle fuels from local resources. Legislation passed which enables local authorities to take over the electricity distribution networks in their areas for use by ESCOs so that the latter do not have to install their own sets of wires.

Air travel becomes too expensive for casual use. Sections of Dublin airport are taken out of use. Excess capacity in the hotel sector. Many hotels close.

Out-of-town shopping centres with poor public transport links suffer declining sales. Ireland turns out to be seriously over-shopped and many outlets close, particularly those selling inessentials. The rentals charged on retail properties plummet. All shops now offer delivery services because of the growing number of customers without cars.

Bakeries distributing over wide areas replaced by local ones. Local breweries and brew-pubs flourish.

The number of people employed in horticulture begins to rise as Irish produce replaces imports. Most livestock farms have biogas digesters.

Plastic packaging becomes progressively expensive. Non-returnable glass containers are banned. An EU directive standardises the sizes and shapes of glass bottles and jars, limiting the total number to 60. An Irish law is passed making it compulsory for a returnable deposit to be charged on glass containers and several small companies are set up to collect glass containers from shops, sort and wash them, and supply them to local food and drink manufacturers.

2036 - 2055:

Energy prices still increasing at 6% a year in relation to wages. As a result, by 2042 it takes eight times as long to earn enough money to buy a unit of electricity than in 2006. Petrol and diesel prices have risen by even more as alternative ways of powering road vehicles, trains, ships and aircraft are still inefficient and expensive.

Sail-wing ships increasingly used to carry freight around the world. Airfreight now too costly for all but exceptionally high value items. IKEA goes into liquidation. Production becomes smaller scale and more local but computer-controlled machinery gives the flexibility for a wide range of products to be made economically in one factory.

Jobs are still plentiful as people are increasingly being used instead of machines. Range of consumer durables becomes more limited and customers look for long-life products which can be readily repaired. When non-EU products are offered, they are suspicious because they worry about the availability of spare parts in a few years’ time.

Sales of processed food fall as more preparation work is done at home. Richer people take on servants. Fewer and fewer people live alone because of the cost of running a house. It becomes common for older, unattached people to share a house just as young people do today.

Many isolated houses are boarded up and abandoned. However, most people want a garden to grow some of their food and councils are compelled to provide allotments.

Arable farmers switch to no-till methods of production and use horses rather than tractors for field work. Many more people are employed on all farms and a more diverse range of crops and animals are kept.

Very few people can afford their own cars. Instead, older people belong to car clubs and hire electrically-powered models when they need to go somewhere without adequate public transport. Younger people cycle.