Fair Shares in 2015

Overview of Fair Shares

Oil peaks by 2007, but the response to the shortage of oil is immediate. Governments realise that, without an international agreement to share out the limited amount of oil and gas on a non-market basis, over-high oil prices will threaten both oil-producing and oil-consuming countries with depression and financial ruin.

A system called Cap and Share is put in place which adopts the position that everyone has an equal claim to be able to use the atmosphere as a dump for his or her greenhouse gas emissions and issues permits for them to do so. These permits can then be traded on the free market but the effect is to control and limit the supply of fossil fuels.


For more details of Cap and Share see http://www.capandshare.org

Fair Shares Summary

Enlarge
Fair Shares eventually lead to economic decline as manufacturing and other associated industries turn lower scale. More localised small scale, less energy intensive, industries develop and the economy weathers the storm longer and far better than is the case for localisation.


Key Fair Shares Facts in 2015

Government Policies

  • Maintaining economy on even keel the priority
  • Little money to invest as being used to purchase energy permits.
  • Home generated electrcicity can now be sold back to the grid but is taxed as income.

Economy

  • Energy prices have grown at 6% per year since 2005
  • Petrol prices have increased by 80% since then
  • Electricity prices have also increased by 80%
  • Inflation tops 10% as higher energy costs work their way through the European economy. Salaries and wages fail to keep up although demand for labour is high.

Business

  • Renewables are now 30% of energy generation, much of it individual or locally generated
  • Resurgence of local business with lower overheads than global corporations

Households

  • Plastic packaging becomes progressively expensive. Non-returnable glass & aluminium containers are banned
  • Dramatic decrease in number of cars on the road
  • Decline in number of single person households

Culture

What are we eating?

  • More local & seasonal due to increase in transport costs.
  • Semi-organic cabbage (fertilizers and pesticides expensive)
  • Irish farmed fish
  • Pasta (dried) produced in Ireland
  • Oranges from Spain (by boat)

What are we watching?

  • Ground Force are now converting gardens for vegetable growing
  • Community TV
  • Neighbours from Heaven

Most popular Websites

  • www.sharensave.org
  • www.c&c.gov.ie
  • www.bus&rail_timetables.ie

What are we selling

  • Cold press for rapeseed.
  • Wood burning stoves for sale, conversions from beer barrels add style.
  • Turnips in exchange for 1/2 ton of topsoil
  • For sale, 10 boxes of Organic Apples.

Headlines

  • Census shows poverty halved in last five years - Those previously on the povery line are well suited to making the best of tight times and do better than the middle class unprepared for making do with very little.
  • Out of town shopping centre bankrupt - People can no longer want to make a special journey just to do the shopping - they want to combine many tasks for each journey so prefer going to a town or city.
  • Crack down on loan sharks intimiation of pensioners for their permits - Everyone has permits to sell and older people do not always understand their value or how to sell them.
  • Kilkenny farmers market raided - Farmers Markets are now found in all towns but this makes it hard to check everyone is paying their taxes!
  • Tenant farming is new form of slavery - The rich are always with us. The rich have land and use tenant farmers to work the land. In some cases they offer very little to the tenant farmers.
  • Salmon caught in Liffy again - Lack of waste has reduced the pollution going into the river that flows through Dublin, enough that salmon are now using the river again.
  • 100mpg family car launched - There are still people who can afford new cars but there has not been significant development in car technology because of lower demand.
  • Return to sail - Sailing ships are a cheap form of transport and ships are being retrofitted with sail to to used when conditions allow.
  • Road deaths fall again - Less cars, less danger.

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Table of Contents

Overview

Introduction
Peak Oil
Scenario Planning
More About the Project

Analysis

The ECCO Model
Results from ECCO Model

The Scenarios

Business As Usual 1PageDetail
Enlightened Transition 1PageDetail
Localisation 1PageDetail
Fair Shares 1PageDetail

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