Enlightened Transition in 2015

Overview of Enlightened Transition

In this scenario, the combined oil and gas peak is reached in twenty five years, just as it was in the Business as Usual one. However, in this case, the government gives leadership from 2005 onwards, enabling the business sector and the general public to avoid making stranded investments (that is, investments that are totally inappropriate to a high energy cost world) and, instead, to use energy which is much cheaper now than it will ever be again to develop Irish energy sources and to reduce the amount of energy required to maintain and run the Irish economy.

Enlightened Transition Summary

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The move to renewable energy sources causes the economy to reach a steady state. The reduced dependence on fossil fuels causes a very moderate decline in the economy after 2030. The enlightened transition scenario manages to achieve a steady state, as it much less dependent on fossil fuel imports but declines somewhat. Also Ireland may have installed all its available renewable energy capacity by 2040 with any excess energy requirements coming from dwindling expensive imported fossil fuels hence the moderate decline in manufacturing output after 2040.


Key Enlightened Transition Facts in 2015

Government Policies

  • The security of Ireland’s energy supplies is put ahead of immediate low energy prices.
  • No new contracts for major road-building projects or airport expansion
  • Congestion charging is introduced
  • Aviation fuel is taxed as a result of EU Directive

Economy

  • Energy prices have grown at 6% per year since 2005
  • Petrol prices have increased by 80% since then
  • Electricity prices have also increased by 80%

Business

  • Renewables now 30% of energy generation
  • Waste a big issue - much is exported
  • 5 Incinerators built since 2005

Households

  • Saving money by reducing waste of all kinds is part of the psyche
  • We no longer expect to get all kinds of fruit and veg all through the year
  • Housing boom ended in 2009 but soft landing
  • Smart metering in all homes allows variable pricing of electricity

Culture

What are we eating?

More seasonal because cost of transport increase. More local.

  • Organic turkey from integrated farm.
  • Irish Potatoes
  • Frozen Veg from Holland
  • Oranges from Spain

What are we watching?

  • Makeover program that reduces cost of running house by 90%
  • Build Your Own Windfarm
  • Back to the city

Most popular Websites

  • www.moreforless.ie
  • www.earncashfromhome.com
  • www.sellonline.com

What are we selling

  • Second car that runs on oil or linseed oil Would swap for 2 quiet house cows.
  • 10 speed bicycle for sale with electric motor assist. E400 ono.
  • Electric producing rowing machine for sale. Produces up to 3 hours energy per hour of excersie in a non-converted house, several more in a converted house. 8 gears, Price E1000. Saves E800 per year for regular users.

Headlines

  • Minister for Sustainable Energy Announced - Sustainable Energy has not become a hot political issue, deserving of a new department
  • Private wire schemes encroach on national grid - Entrepreneurs have started businesses generating electricity which are supplied direct, not via the national grid, to homes and businesses.
  • Property prices fall as pensions funds shift to renewable energy projects - property was long seen as a safe investment - "safe as houses" - but energy is now seen as a better long term investment with good returns. People will always want energy.
  • Deposit for Milk Bottles increased to 50c - For many years glass was simply thrown away, then it was recycled and finally the returnable bottle made a return. Since then, the value of the returnable bottle has increased.
  • Airships to fly over Ireland Again - Airships are a cheap form of transport where speed is not required. They do not require energy to lift them, only to move them forward, they require almost no infrastructure and are now very safe.
  • District heating now favoured by planners - A method popular on continental Europe has finally made it to Ireland.
  • Closing time for Just in Time - As transport prices increase, the warehouse makes a return as it becomes cheaper to take few deliveries and store goods until needed.
  • Ryanbikes slams price increase for public bike storage racks - Ryanair is a successful and ambitious Irish entrepreneur who saw a new business opportunity as people moved out of their cars and onto their bikes. Long known for slamming airports for trying to charge Ryanair for the use of their services, he has brought the same stance to the new Ryanbike business.
  • Eco-village tax free - Eco-villages reconised as a good way forward.
  • Two incinerators to convert to energy production - Reduction is waste, particularlly waste with high embodied energy, forces some facilities to look for alternative sources of income by converting to energy production.
  • New rail lines on central reservation of motorways - Light rail is much more flexible in it's requirements and being installed on dual-carraigeways and motorways.
  • Walk to school "bus" mowed down by Ryanbike - Children walk to school in organised groups or "walking busses". Another dig at Ryanair.

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Table of Contents

Overview

Introduction
Peak Oil
Scenario Planning
More About the Project

Analysis

The ECCO Model
Results from ECCO Model

The Scenarios

Business As Usual 1PageDetail
Enlightened Transition 1PageDetail
Localisation 1PageDetail
Fair Shares 1PageDetail

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