In this scenario, the combined oil and gas peak is reached in thirty twenty five years, just as it was in the preceding one. However, in this case, the government gives leadership from 2005 onwards, enabling the business sector and the general public to avoid making stranded investments (that is, investments that are totally inappropriate to a high energy cost world) and, instead, to use energy which is much cheaper now than it will ever be again to develop Irish energy sources and to reduce the amount of energy required to maintain and run the Irish economy. Government Policies • The security of Ireland’s energy supplies is put ahead of immediate low energy prices. The IDA recognises that while the low-energy cost approach was appropriate in an energy abundant world, a guaranteed energy supply at a predictable price is a better strategy in an energy scarce one. • The government negotiates long-term, fixed price supply contracts with oil and gas producers. This enables it to let energy-users know what prices they will have to pay in the future. • In 2006, Ireland catches up with the rest of the EU-15 and introduces a feed-in law which offers an attractive fixed price for the next 15 years to anyone able to supply electricity from renewable sources to the national grid. Eirgrid is mandated to take this power. Net metering is introduced to encourage households to install small wind turbines and PV panels which supply power to the grid when it is not required for the household’s own use. (Net metering means, essentially, that the electricity meter runs backwards when the household has a surplus of power) • Every building constructed after 2008 has to be built to ZED (i.e. Zero fossil Energy Demand) standards. In other words, the developers have to show that it can be lit and heated without the use of fossil energy and that its location will still be appropriate when the cost of transport, and running a car becomes very much higher than at present. • No new contracts for major road-building projects or airport expansion are awarded. Instead, congestion charging is introduced where it is necessary to limit road or runway use and the proceeds are used to improve bus and rail transport. • Fiscal measures are brought in to encourage compact settlement development including land value taxes and increased betterment- based development levies.??? • Except where there are acute skills shortages, the recruitment of labour from outside the EU ceases. • Public pension investment policies change to favour local renewable energy development. • Tax incentives comparable to those for property in the 90s are introduced to encourage private and community investment in local renewable energy. • Eirgid is directed to begin the transformation of the electricity grid to a distributed system.??

The Business Sector • Business starts to make decisions on the basis of steadily rising energy costs if they are buying power, and steady rising energy prices if they are selling it. Some energy-intensive manufacturing operations close. Others, such as Auginish Alumina, develop wind farms and only fall back on fossil fuels when the wind is not blowing. The closures are offset by expanding firms meeting the demand from the renewable energy sector. • Helped by government research contracts, Irish firms set out to develop and export new energy saving/generation technologies • Air travel becomes steadily more expensive. The tourist sector reacts by offering longer-term activity and special interest holidays rather than weekend breaks.

What about agriculture?

How the next 50 years might develop under the Enlightened Transition Scenario.

2005-2015 • Steps towards a planned transition to indigenous energy sources are taken immediately. • Flood of wind farm projects connected to grid. . 2015-2035 • Ireland becomes world leader in developing tidal stream and electricity storage technologies. • Massive windfarms off the west coast enable Ireland to become a major exporter of electricity to Britain. • Two cement factories close as the level of new building falls and the construction sector switches to techniques involving materials with less embodied energy. The timber frame sector expands as does other low embodied energy construction systems such as hemp / lime construction. Retrofitting for energy efficiency becomes a booming industry covering all building trades.

2035-2055 • Irish energy prices drop below the European average. Energy-intensive manufacturing processes move back.