Commentary

This graph shows the total energy cost of generating electricity. Costs cover both direct consmption of fuel by the generators and the embodied energy in the generator plant itself, and the various services supporting it. For direct energy inputs, only fossil fuel energy inputs are accounted for: wind, wave and sunshine are free resources under this accounting approach.

Two competing factors affect this:

• improved technology reducing the cost e.g. replacing old coal-fired plant with more efficient combined cycle plant
• rising costs of energy driving the price up

In the long term, the latter wins out in the BAU scenario.

Both Fair Shares and Localisation see a significant decrease owing to the move towards renewables. This in spite of the higher capital cost of renewables, which we have factored into these equations.

The Localisation scenario has a jagged profile reflecting the rapid fluctuations in oil price, but otherwise tracks the BAU scenario.