Commentary

This graph shows a major input into our scenarios: the future trend in price of oil and gas. In all scenarios, there is a steep rise over the coming decades. In the Fairs Shares scenario the rise is steeper up to ~ 2030 as peak production occurs in the next two years but then begins to levels off as the economy has adapted to more localised energy sources and is less energy intense resulting in the demand for imported fuel getting lower. In the case of Localisation this result very erratic, following the stop-start nature of the global economy. The Business As Usual and Enlightened Transition cases follow a similar trend to eachother as the rise gets very steep after a 2030 oil peak.