Business As Usual Timeline
2005 – 2015
- Energy prices grow at 3% per year to 2012.
- Research continues at its present level into alternative energy sources and into the development of better methods of energy storage. The costs of photovoltaics fall as production volumes build up
- The Kyoto Protocol has no noticeable effect of levels of fossil energy use in the countries covered by it as emissions trading and offsets under the Clean Development Mechanism, plus the switch to natural gas for electricity generation together with the movement of heavy industry to countries outside the OECD enable countries to meet their targets on paper.
- 2011 First commercial airliner in service that has a hybrid fuel cell/jet fuel engine. (http://www.netl.doe.gov/publications/proceedings/03/seca/DavidDaggett.pdf)
2016 - 2035
- Energy prices grow at 6% including an additional 3% to cover the cost of purchasing climate change emissions permits. This means that people begin to notice that they have less of their wages left for other purchases once their energy bills have been paid.
- Ireland’s population continues to grow in step with its economic growth as the government maintains its policy of keeping wages down and thus boosting Ireland’s export competitiveness by attracting people from all over the world. The growing population helps drive the construction industry.
- The fact that the oil and gas peak will occur some time in the next five years is accepted in 2030 and serious investments in energy alternatives begin.
- Because it anticipated the steady rise in the real cost of energy, the business sector has implemented all the energy efficiency measures that are profitable at the prices currently ruling
2036 - 2055
- Oil and gas prices now start to grow at 9%
- Ireland becomes uncompetitive compared to many EU countries because its energy mix incorporates a greater proportion of oil and gas than is the case in countries such as Britain, Germany, Denmark and Spain which use more renewables, or Finland and France which took the nuclear route.
- The higher energy prices take more and more purchasing power out of the country each year. Living standards begin to fall sharply. Ireland moves into depression
