Business As Usual in 2015

Overview of Business as Usual

This scenario is based on the oil and gas output projections prepared by Dr. Fatih Birol and his colleagues at the International Energy Agency (IEA). In World Energy Outlook 2004, they write:

“Global oil production will not peak over the projection period [i.e., before 2030] so long as necessary investments in supply infrastructure are made. New capacity will be needed to offset production declines and to meet demand growth. About $3 trillion will need to be invested in the oil sector from 2003 to 2030. Financing that effort will be a major challenge.”

However, if the investments are made, they think that oil output will be able to match demand, which they expect to grow from 77 million barrels a day (mb/d) in 2002 to 121mb/d in 2030. This is an annual growth rate of 1.6%, rather less than demand is growing at the moment.

For gas, the IEA team says that “resources can easily meet the projected increase in global demand” provided that $2.7 trillion, or about $100 billion a year, is invested in gas supply infrastructure between now and 2030. This level of investment would allow world gas consumption to rise at 2.3% a year to just less than double its present level.

Following the oil price shocks of 2005/2006 a significant find of oil and gas in the Siberian Arctic restores confidence in the market and oil prices return to $60, thereby growing each year by on average 3%.

Business As Usual Economy Summary

Key Business As Usual Facts in 2015

Government Policies

• Growth at all costs
• Continued investment in roads and airports
• No carbon taxes
• Energy from current sources - gas, oil, peat
• Comply with EU but no more and never in a rush to do so

Economy

• Energy prices growing at 6% per year in 2015
• Petrol prices have increased by 37% since 2005
• Electricity prices have increased by 40% since 2005

Business

• Renewables now 15% of electricity generation
• Waste a big issue - much is exported
• 5 Incinerators built since 2005

Households

• We are running to stand still - many people have 2 or 3 jobs
• Long commutes are common though working from home part-time is increasing
• Housing boom ended in 2009 but soft landing

Culture in 2015

What are we eating?

Same menu as 2005 but different sources.

• Irish Beef
• Chips from Eastern Europe potatoes
• Peas from Israel
• Ice Cream from Irish milk powder

What are we watching?

• Big Cars 3
• We All Want to Be Millionaires
• Greed is Good

Most popular Websites

• www.AAtrafficwatch.ie
• www.buildyourhomeonline.com
• www.celebs.com

What are we selling

• Cork-Dublin road permit - 4 months to run. EUR 240.
• Hybrid car, 2009, 169,000km save 50% on your fuel bills!
• I want to start a new car pool for those travelling from Mallow to Cork weekdays. Anyone interested call.

Headlines

• New incinerator reduces waste export bill - We have finally given in and built incenerators as we seem unable to find any other alternative. This has reduced the cost of waste, much of which was previously exported.
• Irish muslim council deplores government stance on Libyan accession - Libya joins the EU
• Protests and nostalgia as UK finally joins Euro - The EU has become a more popular currency, more and more contracts are written Euros instead of Dollars. The UK, not wanting to be left out of a good thing, finally switches from the Pound to the Euro.
• Fly Waterford to Iraq - Air travel has continued to grow and with new business links between Ireland and Iraq, even small airports such as Waterford are offering flights.
• Irish grand slam marred by doping scandal - Sport continues to be a serious subject and winning more important than ever. Drugs are found in all sports.
• Group Four end of year results show firth year of consecutive growth - With the rich getting richer and the poor getting poorer, security firms are doing well.
• Local Government Bill abandoned - Localisers on retreat - Moves to put more power in local government have not succeeded.
• Hydrogen economy still very promising - There has been no real drive to replace oil with hydrogen and the costs of using hydrogen still remains high, so the Hydrogen economy is still an idea for the future.
• French Fusion demonstration plant already over budget - The dream of Nuclear fusion is having significant amounts of money thrown at it.
• Child abduction foiled by GPS watch - Another security story.
• One-off rural housing now half of new development - The trend for building large,isolated and energy demanding houses in the countryside.
• Domestic heating cost rise - renewed call for Insulation grants - Ireland still not offering householders financial incentives to become more energy efficient.