Scenario: Business as Usual

Overview of Business as Usual

This scenario is based on the oil and gas output projections prepared by Dr. Fatih Birol and his colleagues at the International Energy Agency (IEA). In World Energy Outlook 2004, they write:

“Global oil production will not peak over the projection period [i.e., before 2030] so long as necessary investments in supply infrastructure are made. New capacity will be needed to offset production declines and to meet demand growth. About $3 trillion will need to be invested in the oil sector from 2003 to 2030. Financing that effort will be a major challenge.”

However, if the investments are made, they think that oil output will be able to match demand, which they expect to grow from 77 million barrels a day (mb/d) in 2002 to 121mb/d in 2030. This is an annual growth rate of 1.6%, rather less than demand is growing at the moment.

For gas, the IEA team says that “resources can easily meet the projected increase in global demand” provided that $2.7 trillion, or about $100 billion a year, is invested in gas supply infrastructure between now and 2030. This level of investment would allow world gas consumption to rise at 2.3% a year to just less than double its present level.

Following the oil price shocks of 2005/2006 a significant find of oil and gas in the Siberian Arctic restores confidence in the market and oil prices return to $60, thereby growing each year by on average 3%.

BAU Economy Summary

Characteristics of Business as Usual

Government Policy

The IEA’s reassurances about future supplies have made it easy for governments to continue with their current policies and we assume that this will continue to be the case in Ireland until 2030. During this period, we assume that

Investment in roads and airports etc will continue.
Energy prices will be kept low to enhance international competitiveness. Carbon taxes will not be introduced.
Fossil fuel subsidies will stay in place and will even be augmented in some areas. For example, the government will give loan guarantees to the developers of gas pipelines.
There will be a continued push to increase exports.
Electricity will continue to be generated largely from current sources – coal, peat and gas. Renewable sources will only be developed if they become relatively cheaper than fossil sources during the period – no importance will be given to replacing energy imports with energy produced from Irish sources.
The same will apply to the development of biofuels for transport. In general Ireland will do whatever the EU requires, such as encouraging greater energy efficiency, but never rush to do it.
Ireland will continue to concentrate on developing knowledge-intensive (i.e. Low energy) businesses. Goods requiring a large amount of energy in their manufacture will be imported.
Economic growth will continue to be the primary national goal. To the extent that growth is possible, the capital stock of the country will rise. This will require increased amounts of energy to run and to maintain.

Business Sector

Our main assumption here is that the business sector will expect energy prices to rise steadily between now and 2030 and will plan accordingly.

The level of waste will grow in step with national income. Waste disposal will become even more costly and incinerators will be presented as an energy source. Recycling will develop to the extent that it is commercially viable.
Firms will do what they can to move incrementally towards environmental and social sustainability but no big changes will occur as they will expect payback within 18 months from their projects. .
Construction industry energy efficiency standards will meet EU regulations but not to exceed them. Energy-intensive construction materials will continue to be used although the Energy Performance in Buildings Directive will cause a drop in the energy consumption of buildings in use.
Labour will still be regarded as the major cost of production and reducing the cost of labour per unit of output will continue to have priority over reducing the cost of energy. (Dave: When does the model say that energy becomes the major cost for the economy as a whole? (It will obvious vary from sector to sector and it might be useful to show where each sector switches from one to the other. One problem you will probably find in answering this question is that there is a major difference between the energy costs of an established business, where the energy tied up in capital equipment was invested years ago and a new business which needs to buy capital equipment embodying large amounts of energy now.)

Households

As energy price rises become news, people become more conscious of the money they spend on energy and try to waste less.
People take separating waste for granted.
Houses that have been built to require low energy input increase in value.
Long commutes increase as people seek a better quality of life and cheaper housing. This is facilitated by road improvements.

Business As Usual Timeline

2005 – 2015

Energy prices grow at 3% per year to 2012.
Research continues at its present level into alternative energy sources and into the development of better methods of energy storage. The costs of photovoltaics fall as production volumes build up
The Kyoto Protocol has no noticeable effect of levels of fossil energy use in the countries covered by it as emissions trading and offsets under the Clean Development Mechanism, plus the switch to natural gas for electricity generation together with the movement of heavy industry to countries outside the OECD enable countries to meet their targets on paper.
2011 First commercial airliner in service that has a hybrid fuel cell/jet fuel engine. (http://www.netl.doe.gov/publications/proceedings/03/seca/DavidDaggett.pdf)

2016 - 2035

Energy prices grow at 6% including an additional 3% to cover the cost of purchasing climate change emissions permits. This means that people begin to notice that they have less of their wages left for other purchases once their energy bills have been paid.
Ireland’s population continues to grow in step with its economic growth as the government maintains its policy of keeping wages down and thus boosting Ireland’s export competitiveness by attracting people from all over the world. The growing population helps drive the construction industry.
The fact that the oil and gas peak will occur some time in the next five years is accepted in 2030 and serious investments in energy alternatives begin.
Because it anticipated the steady rise in the real cost of energy, the business sector has implemented all the energy efficiency measures that are profitable at the prices currently ruling

2036 - 2055

Oil and gas prices now start to grow at 9%
Ireland becomes uncompetitive compared to many EU countries because its energy mix incorporates a greater proportion of oil and gas than is the case in countries such as Britain, Germany, Denmark and Spain which use more renewables, or Finland and France which took the nuclear route.
The higher energy prices take more and more purchasing power out of the country each year. Living standards begin to fall sharply. Ireland moves into depression

Life in 2015 - Business As Usual

I'm a knowledge worker with Microsoft Ireland. about the only thing that is not change for me in the last ten years is the company I work for. In 2005 I was a techie working in Dublin and commuting three hours every day. Now I live in a small village outside Tralee in County Kerry and commute to my purpose built office next door.

We build this luxury eco home on the age of the village looking out to sea in 2007, just before the end of housing boom. Like everyone else, we moved our money out of Irish property and into Eastern Europe and I think this is what caused a soft landing for the property market. Even in 2007 we could see that energy prices were only going to go up so we put in all latest technology to make our house really efficient and we find it costs no more to run than our neighbours little house built by a local developer.

We chose this area because it is unspoiled. None of the big farmers have managed to buy the land here, or don't want it! It is mostly mountain and small fields. The problem is, the local farmers don't seem to have much interest in keeping the farms tidy, so some areas are starting to look run down. The village has kept its quaint old Irish look, even though many of the people living here are now Chinese! We try to buy something in local shop each week to show we support the village, but with LIdl doing free delivery with online ordering, it's usually own a litre of milk or the newspaper on Sunday.

Key Business As Usual Facts in 2015

Government Policies

Growth at all costs
Continued investment in roads and airports
No carbon taxes
Energy from current sources - gas, oil, peat
Comply with EU but no more and never in a rush to do so

Economy

Energy prices growing at 6% per year in 2015
Petrol prices have increased by 37% since 2005
Electricity prices have increased by 40% since 2005

Business

Renewables now 15% of electricity generation
Waste a big issue - much is exported
5 Incinerators built since 2005

Households

We are running to stand still - many people have 2 or 3 jobs
Long commutes are common though working from home part-time is increasing
Housing boom ended in 2009 but soft landing

Culture in 2015

What are we eating?

Same menu as 2005 but different sources.

Irish Beef
Chips from Eastern Europe potatoes
Peas from Israel
Ice Cream from Irish milk powder

What are we watching?

Big Cars 3
We All Want to Be Millionaires
Greed is Good

What are we selling

Cork-Dublin road permit - 4 months to run. EUR 240.
Hybrid car, 2009, 169,000km save 50% on your fuel bills!
I want to start a new car pool for those travelling from Mallow to Cork weekdays. Anyone interested call.

Headlines

New incinerator reduces waste export bill - We have finally given in and built incenerators as we seem unable to find any other alternative. This has reduced the cost of waste, much of which was previously exported.
Irish muslim council deplores government stance on Libyan accession - Libya joins the EU
Protests and nostalgia as UK finally joins Euro - The EU has become a more popular currency, more and more contracts are written Euros instead of Dollars. The UK, not wanting to be left out of a good thing, finally switches from the Pound to the Euro.
Fly Waterford to Iraq - Air travel has continued to grow and with new business links between Ireland and Iraq, even small airports such as Waterford are offering flights.
Irish grand slam marred by doping scandal - Sport continues to be a serious subject and winning more important than ever. Drugs are found in all sports.
Group Four end of year results show firth year of consecutive growth - With the rich getting richer and the poor getting poorer, security firms are doing well.
Local Government Bill abandoned - Localisers on retreat - Moves to put more power in local government have not succeeded.
Hydrogen economy still very promising - There has been no real drive to replace oil with hydrogen and the costs of using hydrogen still remains high, so the Hydrogen economy is still an idea for the future.
French Fusion demonstration plant already over budget - The dream of Nuclear fusion is having significant amounts of money thrown at it.
Child abduction foiled by GPS watch - Another security story.
One-off rural housing now half of new development - The trend for building large,isolated and energy demanding houses in the countryside.
Domestic heating cost rise - renewed call for Insulation grants - Ireland still not offering householders financial incentives to become more energy efficient.

Scenario: Enlightened Transition

Overview of Enlightened Transition

In this scenario, the combined oil and gas peak is reached in twenty five years, just as it was in the Business as Usual one. However, in this case, the government gives leadership from 2005 onwards, enabling the business sector and the general public to avoid making stranded investments (that is, investments that are totally inappropriate to a high energy cost world) and, instead, to use energy which is much cheaper now than it will ever be again to develop Irish energy sources and to reduce the amount of energy required to maintain and run the Irish economy.

Enlightened Transition Summary

The move to renewable energy sources causes the economy to reach a steady state. The reduced dependence on fossil fuels causes a very moderate decline in the economy after 2030. The enlightened transition scenario manages to achieve a steady state, as it much less dependent on fossil fuel imports but declines somewhat. Also Ireland may have installed all its available renewable energy capacity by 2040 with any excess energy requirements coming from dwindling expensive imported fossil fuels hence the moderate decline in manufacturing output after 2040.

Characteristics of Enlightened Transition

Government Policies

The security of Ireland’s energy supplies is put ahead of immediate low energy prices. The IDA recognises that while the low-energy cost approach was appropriate in an energy abundant world, a guaranteed energy supply at a predictable price is a better strategy in an energy scarce one.
The government negotiates long-term, fixed price supply contracts with oil and gas producers. This enables it to let energy-users know what prices they will have to pay in the future.
In 2006, Ireland catches up with the rest of the EU-15 and introduces a feed-in law which offers an attractive fixed price for the next 15 years to anyone able to supply electricity from renewable sources to the national grid. Eirgrid is mandated to take this power. Net metering is introduced to encourage households to install small wind turbines and PV panels which supply power to the grid when it is not required for the household’s own use. (Net metering means, essentially, that the electricity meter runs backwards when the household has a surplus of power)
Every building constructed after 2008 has to be built to ZED (i.e. Zero fossil Energy Demand) standards. In other words, the developers have to show that it can be lit and heated without the use of fossil energy and that its location will still be appropriate when the cost of transport, and running a car becomes very much higher than at present.
No new contracts for major road-building projects or airport expansion are awarded. Instead, congestion charging is introduced where it is necessary to limit road or runway use and the proceeds are used to improve bus and rail transport.
Fiscal measures are brought in to encourage compact settlement development including land value taxes and increased betterment- based development levies.???
Except where there are acute skills shortages, the recruitment of labour from outside the EU ceases.
Public pension investment policies change to favour local renewable energy development.
Tax incentives comparable to those for property in the 90s are introduced to encourage private and community investment in local renewable energy.
Eirgid is directed to begin the transformation of the electricity grid to a distributed system.??

The Business Sector

Business starts to make decisions on the basis of steadily rising energy costs if they are buying power, and steady rising energy prices if they are selling it. Some energy-intensive manufacturing operations close. Others, such as Auginish Alumina, develop wind farms and only fall back on fossil fuels when the wind is not blowing. The closures are offset by expanding firms meeting the demand from the renewable energy sector.
Helped by government research contracts, Irish firms set out to develop and export new energy saving/generation technologies
Air travel becomes steadily more expensive. The tourist sector reacts by offering longer-term activity and special interest holidays rather than weekend breaks.

Household

   *  All houses now have smart metering which allows for variable pricing of electricity
   * Devices attached to appliances can be set to run when a certain price band is reached so the less urgent tasks wait for the lowest prices and their is also a "I need it and I need it now" button for urgent tasks!
   * Many have battery backup which not only provides electricity if the power goes off, but can be charged when the price is low and used when the price is high.
   * Some apartments have shared facilities such as washing machines
   * The standard of insulation and draught-proofing in homes countrywide now rivals Sweden
   * Homes now require 50% of the energy to run them that they did in 2005.  This is though efficiency gains and people keeping their homes cooler.
   * High energy tasks now carried out when power is cheap rather than when it is convenient.  Washing when the wind blows.

Timeline for Enlightened Transition

How the next 50 years develop under the Enlightened Transition Scenario.

2005-2015

Steps towards a planned transition to indigenous energy sources are taken immediately.
Flood of wind farm projects connected to grid.

2015-2035

Ireland becomes world leader in developing tidal stream and electricity storage technologies.
Massive windfarms off the west coast enable Ireland to become a major exporter of electricity to Britain.
Two cement factories close as the level of new building falls and the construction sector switches to techniques involving materials with less embodied energy.
The timber frame sector expands as does other low embodied energy construction systems such as hemp / lime construction. Retrofitting for energy efficiency becomes a booming industry covering all building trades.

2035-2055

Irish energy prices drop below the European average. Energy-intensive manufacturing processes move back.

Living in 2015

I hate politicians. Back in 2005, the coalition government they had then got a bee in its collective bonnet about how oil and gas were going to run out in 25 years’ time and how we’d better get ready for it. Talk about Chicken Little and the sky falling! Anyway, they started distorting the market by putting up energy prices and giving subsidies, grants and tax breaks to encourage the generation of all sorts of renewable energy. The big firms like Airtricity did well out of the taxpayer, of course, but a lot of smaller people did as well, particularly after a scheme came in which enabled communities to start generating their own heat and electricity and distributing it through their own networks of pipes and cables.

The present government is no better, it says that the higher prices we are paying for our power here are enabling the business sector and the general public to avoid making “stranded investments”. by which they mean investments that are totally inappropriate to a high energy cost world. Have you ever heard such jargon? And such nonsense! It’s them that are creating the high prices to reward their political supporters. It’s not a high cost energy world and other countries without these silly policies are growing faster than we are.

Is not up to government to worry about what will happen in the long terms. The market can do that and, when shortages really do appear, then firms can make money honestly by sorting them out.

Key Enlightened Transition Facts in 2015

Government Policies

The security of Ireland’s energy supplies is put ahead of immediate low energy prices.
No new contracts for major road-building projects or airport expansion
Congestion charging is introduced
Aviation fuel is taxed as a result of EU Directive

Economy

Energy prices have grown at 6% per year since 2005
Petrol prices have increased by 80% since then
Electricity prices have also increased by 80%

Business

Renewables now 30% of energy generation
Waste a big issue - much is exported
5 Incinerators built since 2005

Households

Saving money by reducing waste of all kinds is part of the psyche
We no longer expect to get all kinds of fruit and veg all through the year
Housing boom ended in 2009 but soft landing
Smart metering in all homes allows variable pricing of electricity

Culture

What are we eating?

More seasonal because cost of transport increase. More local.

Organic turkey from integrated farm.
Irish Potatoes
Frozen Veg from Holland
Oranges from Spain

What are we watching?

Makeover program that reduces cost of running house by 90%
Build Your Own Windfarm
Back to the city

What are we selling

Second car that runs on oil or linseed oil Would swap for 2 quiet house cows.
10 speed bicycle for sale with electric motor assist. E400 ono.
Electric producing rowing machine for sale. Produces up to 3 hours energy per hour of excersie in a non-converted house, several more in a converted house. 8 gears, Price E1000. Saves E800 per year for regular users.

Headlines

Minister for Sustainable Energy Announced - Sustainable Energy has not become a hot political issue, deserving of a new department
Private wire schemes encroach on national grid - Entrepreneurs have started businesses generating electricity which are supplied direct, not via the national grid, to homes and businesses.
Property prices fall as pensions funds shift to renewable energy projects - property was long seen as a safe investment - "safe as houses" - but energy is now seen as a better long term investment with good returns. People will always want energy.
Deposit for Milk Bottles increased to 50c - For many years glass was simply thrown away, then it was recycled and finally the returnable bottle made a return. Since then, the value of the returnable bottle has increased.
Airships to fly over Ireland Again - Airships are a cheap form of transport where speed is not required. They do not require energy to lift them, only to move them forward, they require almost no infrastructure and are now very safe.
District heating now favoured by planners - A method popular on continental Europe has finally made it to Ireland.
Closing time for Just in Time - As transport prices increase, the warehouse makes a return as it becomes cheaper to take few deliveries and store goods until needed.
Ryanbikes slams price increase for public bike storage racks - Ryanair is a successful and ambitious Irish entrepreneur who saw a new business opportunity as people moved out of their cars and onto their bikes. Long known for slamming airports for trying to charge Ryanair for the use of their services, he has brought the same stance to the new Ryanbike business.
Eco-village tax free - Eco-villages reconised as a good way forward.
Two incinerators to convert to energy production - Reduction is waste, particularlly waste with high embodied energy, forces some facilities to look for alternative sources of income by converting to energy production.
New rail lines on central reservation of motorways - Light rail is much more flexible in it's requirements and being installed on dual-carraigeways and motorways.
Walk to school "bus" mowed down by Ryanbike - Children walk to school in organised groups or "walking busses". Another dig at Ryanair.

Scenario: Fair Shares

Overview of Fair Shares Oil peaks by 2007, but the response to the shortage of oil is immediate. Governments realise that, without an international agreement to share out the limited amount of oil and gas on a non-market basis, over-high oil prices will threaten both oil-producing and oil-consuming countries with depression and financial ruin. A system called Cap and Share is put in place which adopts the position that everyone has an equal claim to be able to use the atmosphere as a dump for his or her greenhouse gas emissions and issues permits for them to do so. These permits can then be traded on the free market but the effect is to control and limit the supply of fossil fuels. For more details of Cap and Share see http://www.capandshare.org
Fair Shares Summary Fair Shares eventually lead to economic decline as manufacturing and other associated industries turn lower scale. More localised small scale, less energy intensive, industries develop and the economy weathers the storm longer and far better than is the case for localisation.
Characteristics of Fair Shares Government Policies The high energy prices and the certainty that they will tend to rise still further causes a rush of renewable energy projects to go ahead. Eirgrid is mandated to take their power. Net metering is introduced to encourage households to install small wind turbines and PV panels which supply power to the grid when it is not required for the household’s own use. Every building constructed after 2008 has to be built to ZED (i.e. Zero fossil Energy Demand) standards. In other words, the developers have to show that it can be lit and heated without the use of fossil energy and that its location will still be appropriate when the cost of transport, and running a car becomes very much higher than at present. No new contracts for major road-building projects or airport expansion are awarded. Instead, congestion charging is introduced where it is necessary to limit road or runway use and the proceeds are used to improve bus and rail transport. Except where there are acute skills shortages, the recruitment of labour from outside the EU ceases. The Business Sector Business starts to make decisions on the basis of steadily rising energy costs if they are buying power, and steady rising energy prices if they are selling it. Because of Ireland’s favourable renewable energy potential. Some energy-intensive manufacturing companies move their operations here and develop their own supplies. Irish consumer demand falls because of the increased amount of everyone’s income going to pay for imported energy and for emissions permits. However, this fall is offset by increased demand from poorer countries who are now able to afford Irish goods and by demand from the renewable energy sector which is developing rapidly. Helped by government research contracts, Irish firms set out to develop and export new energy saving/generation technologies Air travel becomes steadily more expensive. The tourist sector reacts by offering longer-term activity and special interest holidays rather than weekend breaks. Household We become obsessed with keeping warm in winter. New range of fleece developed from plants which is turned into housecoats that are both warm and stylish! The poor struggle to keep warm. Move people per household. Large houses built during boom times, now have 2 or 3 families living in them. Variable pricing for electricity with changes available on the internet and reported on radio. Conservatories become greenhouses. Education Third level education moves towards a distributed model with many lectures, particularly in regional colleges, being provided via video link. Students spend more time in self-directed study using internet based programmes. Links are established with Colleges and Universities across the world to provide complete courses using various electronic media. Lectures are transmitted live to students, wherever they are, at home or at their local college, and they can participate by submitting questions to the lecturer and in online discussions afterwards. Content of courses at third level is mainly vocational with particular focus in skills for growing energy sector. Primary and Secondary education takes advantage of the many services provided by the internet but is focused on providing an education for life.
Timeline for Fair Shares 2005 - 2015 The cartel agrees a $50 per barrel price for oil with the producers, and prices for gas and coal based on their historic relationship with the price of oil. It is also agreed that these prices will rise by 3% a year, the rate at which the output of all three fuels is to be reduced, so that the producers are guaranteed a constant income into the future. Emissions permits are distributed worldwide for the first time, giving each person on the planet the right to emit the amount of carbon dioxide released by one tonne of oil or the equivalent in coal or gas a year. Recipients sell them immediately and receive over $200, making the effective price of oil $80 a barrel, since each tonne of oil is equivalent to 7.2 barrels. Electricity interconnector to Wales completed, allowing rapid increase in the number of windfarms connected to the grid as surplus power can now be exported and power from Britain brought in when wind in Ireland drops. Massive increase in demand for consumer goods and foodstuffs from the poorer parts of the world, where the sale of emissions permits has effectively doubled the incomes of the poorest people. Farmers benefit from higher food prices but cut back on fertilizer applications due to high cost. Inflation tops 10% as higher energy costs work their way through the European economy. Salaries and wages fail to keep up although demand for labour is high. House prices tend to fall as people have less money left over to pay rent or a mortgage once their basic needs are met. Energy rating, introduced in 2006, means that the price of big houses and poorly insulated ones fall by above-average amounts. So do the prices of houses far from employment centres and those of holiday homes. Activity in the house construction sector declines. Many small companies are established to assess exactly where a house is wasting energy and to undertake remedial measures. Car sales fall and the market moves to lower engine sizes. Home generated electrcicity can now be sold back to the grid but is taxed as income. Community buying systems develop, based on the internet, for goods that have to be imported. Car sharing schemes become the norm. 2016 - 2035 Energy prices still rising at 6% a year relative to incomes. Number of cars on roads continues to fall. Bus and train services become more frequent. Cycling returning to levels last seen in the 1950s. Network of regional factories set up to convert forest thinnings and other biomass into ethanol for use in cars. The yield is boosted by adding hydrogen made using surplus wind electricity. Tidal lagoon developed in Galway Bay to feed electricity into the grid. Massive developments in offshore windfarms. Horse breeders find that it is more profitable to breed heavy horses for use in city deliveries and on farms than to produce show-jumpers and racers. Many communities set up ESCOs – energy supply companies, to provide themselves with heat, light, cooling and vehicle fuels from local resources. Legislation passed which enables local authorities to take over the electricity distribution networks in their areas for use by ESCOs so that the latter do not have to install their own sets of wires. Air travel becomes too expensive for casual use. Sections of Dublin airport are taken out of use. Excess capacity in the hotel sector. Many hotels close. Out-of-town shopping centres with poor public transport links suffer declining sales. Ireland turns out to be seriously over-shopped and many outlets close, particularly those selling inessentials. The rentals charged on retail properties plummet. All shops now offer delivery services because of the growing number of customers without cars. Bakeries distributing over wide areas replaced by local ones. Local breweries and brew-pubs flourish. The number of people employed in horticulture begins to rise as Irish produce replaces imports. Most livestock farms have biogas digesters. Plastic packaging becomes progressively expensive. Non-returnable glass containers are banned. An EU directive standardises the sizes and shapes of glass bottles and jars, limiting the total number to 60. An Irish law is passed making it compulsory for a returnable deposit to be charged on glass containers and several small companies are set up to collect glass containers from shops, sort and wash them, and supply them to local food and drink manufacturers. 2036 - 2055: Energy prices still increasing at 6% a year in relation to wages. As a result, by 2042 it takes eight times as long to earn enough money to buy a unit of electricity than in 2006. Petrol and diesel prices have risen by even more as alternative ways of powering road vehicles, trains, ships and aircraft are still inefficient and expensive. Sail-wing ships increasingly used to carry freight around the world. Airfreight now too costly for all but exceptionally high value items. IKEA goes into liquidation. Production becomes smaller scale and more local but computer-controlled machinery gives the flexibility for a wide range of products to be made economically in one factory. Jobs are still plentiful as people are increasingly being used instead of machines. Range of consumer durables becomes more limited and customers look for long-life products which can be readily repaired. When non-EU products are offered, they are suspicious because they worry about the availability of spare parts in a few years’ time. Sales of processed food fall as more preparation work is done at home. Richer people take on servants. Fewer and fewer people live alone because of the cost of running a house. It becomes common for older, unattached people to share a house just as young people do today. Many isolated houses are boarded up and abandoned. However, most people want a garden to grow some of their food and councils are compelled to provide allotments. Arable farmers switch to no-till methods of production and use horses rather than tractors for field work. Many more people are employed on all farms and a more diverse range of crops and animals are kept. Very few people can afford their own cars. Instead, older people belong to car clubs and hire electrically-powered models when they need to go somewhere without adequate public transport. Younger people cycle.
FairShares Life
Key Fair Shares Facts in 2015 Government Policies Maintaining economy on even keel the priority Little money to invest as being used to purchase energy permits. Home generated electrcicity can now be sold back to the grid but is taxed as income. Economy Energy prices have grown at 6% per year since 2005 Petrol prices have increased by 80% since then Electricity prices have also increased by 80% Inflation tops 10% as higher energy costs work their way through the European economy. Salaries and wages fail to keep up although demand for labour is high. Business Renewables are now 30% of energy generation, much of it individual or locally generated Resurgence of local business with lower overheads than global corporations Households Plastic packaging becomes progressively expensive. Non-returnable glass & aluminium containers are banned Dramatic decrease in number of cars on the road Decline in number of single person households
Culture What are we eating? More local & seasonal due to increase in transport costs. Semi-organic cabbage (fertilizers and pesticides expensive) Irish farmed fish Pasta (dried) produced in Ireland Oranges from Spain (by boat) What are we watching? Ground Force are now converting gardens for vegetable growing Community TV Neighbours from Heaven Most popular Websites www.sharensave.org www.c&c.gov.ie www.bus&rail_timetables.ie What are we selling Cold press for rapeseed. Wood burning stoves for sale, conversions from beer barrels add style. Turnips in exchange for 1/2 ton of topsoil For sale, 10 boxes of Organic Apples. Headlines Census shows poverty halved in last five years - Those previously on the povery line are well suited to making the best of tight times and do better than the middle class unprepared for making do with very little. Out of town shopping centre bankrupt - People can no longer want to make a special journey just to do the shopping - they want to combine many tasks for each journey so prefer going to a town or city. Crack down on loan sharks intimiation of pensioners for their permits - Everyone has permits to sell and older people do not always understand their value or how to sell them. Kilkenny farmers market raided - Farmers Markets are now found in all towns but this makes it hard to check everyone is paying their taxes! Tenant farming is new form of slavery - The rich are always with us. The rich have land and use tenant farmers to work the land. In some cases they offer very little to the tenant farmers. Salmon caught in Liffy again - Lack of waste has reduced the pollution going into the river that flows through Dublin, enough that salmon are now using the river again. 100mpg family car launched - There are still people who can afford new cars but there has not been significant development in car technology because of lower demand. Return to sail - Sailing ships are a cheap form of transport and ships are being retrofitted with sail to to used when conditions allow. Road deaths fall again - Less cars, less danger.

Scenario: Localisation

Overview of Enforced Localisation

The world is unprepared for the oil peak when it occurs in 2007. The European central bank panics and increases interest rates in order to try and control inflation. Instead of allowing the increases in energy prices to work their way through the markets, business is stifled by increasing costs on all sides.

The lack of demand for energy causes a drop in price and supply is once again able to meet demand, but as the economy picks up, the need for fossil fuel generated energy also increases and since there has been no investment in alternatives, this quickly leads to supply shortages and the cycle repeats itself.

By 2015, oil prices are low, but unemployment high and business people are reluctant to invest having been stung by the instability of the previous years. Those businesses that survive are focused on delivering locally sourced products to local markets.

Localisation Summary

The economy contracts and collapses with the rising oil prices. As oil prices rise economic growth declines resulting in the demand for oil getting less, which may temporarily reduce the price of oil causing an initial economic recovery but only to collapse completely again. The economy gets a real battering under the localisation scenario, from which it can't recover.

Characteristics of Localisation

Government Policies

Investment in capital projects, incinerators, renewables, roads etc. cease through lack of funding
Interest rates are increased to counter inflation caused by high fuel costs.

Business

Property values at first boosted by a flight from equities, collapses in the face of increased interest rates and depressed economy. Construction ceases completely.
Businesses which adapt to doing business with local suppliers and local customers survive. Those with the knowledge and skills to repair machinery are in particular demand.
Everyone with a patch of land starts growing food for personal use and to barter for other services.
Urban residents invade and squat well located agricultural land.
Local currencies develop.
Multinationals decentralise to try and adapt to changing supply and demand.

Household

Foods we have become used to are rarely available: bananas, cheap frozen meals, coffee, tea!
Maintaining a car and obtaining fuel for it becomes increasingly difficult, although periods of low oil prices help. We no longer travel on a whim, but plan our trips to make best use of fuel. Neighbours share trips to town for shopping.
Most food is grown at home or supplied from local producers.
People develop micro-businesses to supply goods or services that can be used to trade for essential needs.

Timeline for Localisation

2005 - 2015

Worldwide depression develops due to the failure of the oil and gas producing countries to spend their windfall profits back into the global economy.
Ireland hit more seriously than most other EU countries because of its higher dependence on imports of fossil fuels and on export markets for its products. Unemployment soars.
Rapid collapse of activity in construction sector. Housing market plummets. Banks in difficulties as house buyers are unable to repay loans and find themselves deeply into negative equity.
World food prices drop because the marginal buyers cannot afford to pay as much as previously. Farms quickly start to produce locally required foods as they can get better prices for them. Farmers’ markets open in every town.
Internet access is unreliable as many servers are no longer available 24/7.
Oil prices peak and then drop back to around $12 a barrel. Exploration and reserve development projects are cancelled. Shell mothballs its Athabasca tar sands project. Ireland finds itself with excess electricity generating capacity. No further wind farms are permitted to connect to the national grid.

2016-2055

By 2020, another 2-year oil price peak has happened, only to see prices collapse back to the $12 a barrel level.
The world economy is contracting, with firms closing and their equipment being scrapped during each downturn of the cycle. A limited amount of investment takes place during the recovery phase of the cycle but previous output levels are never achieved again. Each peak in global production, and in total energy use, is lower than the one ten or fifteen years previously.
People do what they can to meet their own needs. Energy is expensive in their own terms because their earnings are low.
A transition to low energy, labour-intensive ways of doing things takes place because money (and energy) for capital equipment is not available.
Households will need to repair possessions as they will not have the money to dump worn or broken goods and buy new ones. Machines will have to last a lot longer. Cannibalisation for parts will be common.
Travel will be limited because it will be expensive and people will have less need to travel.
Local and regional governments, strapped for money to pay their workers, will begin to issue their own currencies as happened in Argentina.
The Internet will be an important source of information about ways of adapting to the new conditions. E-commerce will be almost entirely local except for the supply of rare parts to maintain equipment
Local sources of energy such as biomass will be developed where possible.
Little used, the national electricity grid may prove too expensive to maintain in view of the high cost of repairs and the loss of 10% of the power passing through it.
Local energy supplies will develop that use the local electricity distribution system but not the grid. Slowly a new grid will develop from a web of interconnecting mini-grids.
Almost no new building will be carried on. What construction activity there is will be the adaptation of existing buildings for new uses, usually by the occupants and local builders, using recycled materials. Big houses will be shared.
The massive drop in energy use will remove the pressure to act to prevent climate change.
Localised famines will develop because of the difficulties with long-distance transport
Transport by sea will become more important - settlement patterns more coastal. Irish Rail will run its trains on rapeseed oil. Tractors will run on biodiesal and (a very few) cars will be run on methane from digesters.
The government will find it increasingly difficult to maintain control because it will be harder for people to travel. This will give an impetus towards a real decentralisation.
Very little production will be based on 'new' resources. Most materials will be recycled. For example, what little steel production is carried on will be based on scrap metal.

2055:

New things becoming possible with the growing sophistication of local economies.

Localisation Life

Key Localisation Facts in 2015

Government Policies

Investment in capital projects ceases through lack of funding
Interest rates increase to counter inflation caused by high fuel costs
Government is destabilised due to restless impoverished citizens

Economy

Energy prices are destabilised
Unemployment is widespread

Business

Multinationals decentralise to try and adapt to changing supply and demand
Construction ceases completely due to prohibitive energy costs and lack of buyers' market
Business with local suppliers & customers thrives; repair services also in demand

Households

People start growing food for personal use
Local currencies develop
Debt crisis as home-owners caught in negative equity Culture

Culture

What are we eating?

Local farm & home grown produce
Nuts, berries & roots
Tinned goods stockpiled by survivalists
Atlantic seaweed

What are we watching?

Ground Force are now converting gardens for vegetable growing
Starship MicroEnterprise
Jim'll Fix It

What are we selling

Working horse for sale. One owner, in good condition with new set of steel shoes. Doesn't eat much and high emissions will help grow your cabages! Loves to work.
Best wheelbarrows in town for sale in exchange for cars in sound condition.
Mobile Super Shop Bank - Post Office - Library See our new timetable at http://www.shopcometou.cork
Bouncy Castles - Closing Down Sale - Everything Must Go
Veg growing classes start next Wednesday at 7pm in the Community Centre.
We own an old landfill. Do you want what’s in it?

Headlines

Irish draft horse prices now higher than those of new tractors - Horse make a return to the farm.
Survey reveals Irish now slimmer and fitter than 2005 - We are living healthier lives - better food and more excercise.
Liffy hand-dredged for bikes and prams - One of the big differences between 2015 and 1805 is that we have Junk. All kinds of junk is being given a new lease of life.
Castlecomer coal mine reopened - Ireland's limited coal mines are being reopened.
Cork warlords declare independant state - Law and order has broken down in some areas.
Riots at allotments over cabbage - Food supplies can be very limited at the end of the winter and in some areas there are fights over remaining food supplies.
Foreign correspondants sacked as Ireland looses interest in outside world - We are foced to become virtually self-sufficient for our essential needs and therefore have little interest is what is happening out there.
Bicycle factory fueld by biomass and wind opens in Westport - Many businesses are gone bust, but many more, usually small scale and local, are opening.

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Scenario: Business as Usual

Overview of Business as Usual

Characteristics of Business as Usual

Government Policy

Business Sector

Households

Business As Usual Timeline

2005 – 2015

2016 - 2035

2036 - 2055

Life in 2015 - Business As Usual

Key Business As Usual Facts in 2015

Government Policies

Economy

Business

Households

Culture in 2015

What are we eating?

What are we watching?

Most popular Websites

What are we selling

Headlines

Scenario: Enlightened Transition

Overview of Enlightened Transition

Enlightened Transition Summary

Characteristics of Enlightened Transition

Government Policies

The Business Sector

Household

Timeline for Enlightened Transition

2005-2015

2015-2035

2035-2055

Living in 2015

Key Enlightened Transition Facts in 2015

Government Policies

Economy

Business

Households

Culture

What are we eating?

What are we watching?

Most popular Websites

What are we selling

Headlines

Scenario: Fair Shares

Overview of Fair Shares

Fair Shares Summary

Characteristics of Fair Shares

Government Policies

The Business Sector

Household

Education

Timeline for Fair Shares

2005 - 2015

2016 - 2035

2036 - 2055:

Key Fair Shares Facts in 2015

Government Policies

Economy

Business

Households

Culture

What are we eating?

What are we watching?

Most popular Websites

What are we selling

Headlines

Scenario: Localisation

Overview of Enforced Localisation

Localisation Summary

Characteristics of Localisation

Government Policies

Business

Household

Timeline for Localisation

2005 - 2015

2016-2055

2055:

Key Localisation Facts in 2015